Experts argued about the cost of square meters
Prices for apartments in new buildings in 2022 will grow by 8-10%. This was reported by analysts of the rating agency “National Credit Ratings” (NKR). One of the main reasons for the rise in prices is the continuing rise in prices for building materials, they believe. Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, shares the exact opposite opinion. He said that real estate prices in Russia may decline due to the fall in demand for mortgages in connection with the increase in the key rate by the Central Bank. About who is right in this dispute and what will happen to housing prices next year, “MK” found out from the experts.
In June 2022, the concessional mortgage program ends, which will be a negative signal for the real estate market if the authorities do not want to extend it again. But even without this factor, the main risk for the rise in housing prices remains the growth of the key rate of the Bank of Russia, followed by a rapid rise in interest rates on all loans, including housing loans. “When the price of mortgage loans goes down, the demand for housing grows – and it grows in price,” said the deputy Anatoly Aksakov. “When the price of mortgages increases, the demand for housing decreases – and housing becomes cheaper.” The Russians can benefit from this situation, the deputy is sure. In his opinion, “a swing that can be used to your advantage” is formed here. In addition, developers will rent out properties as soon as possible in order to use the money of equity holders that are on escrow accounts. And, accordingly, they will strive to sell housing faster – until the price drops, the parliamentarian is sure.
Experts disagreed on who is right in this dispute: the head of the Duma committee or NKR analysts who predict a rise in prices. However, according to Alexei Krichevsky, a real estate market expert at the Academy of Finance and Investment Management, paradoxically, both opinions may turn out to be correct. For new buildings, the question is not that the prices for building materials and salaries have suddenly risen sharply – this has been the case for the entire current year. Roughly this year, developers’ profits may reach 3 trillion rubles. And, of course, developers will try to keep the profitability of projects that they have received since the announcement of preferential mortgages for new buildings. In fact, the growing mortgage rates, the impoverishment of the population and the falling demand due to these factors will either force developers to adjust prices, or bring to the market a minimum volume of housing, which may come back to haunt them in the future, since it will be necessary to somehow pay off bank loans issued for development projects. The probability that prices in new buildings will drop dramatically is quite small, but one should not expect a sharp rise here either. The most likely corridor of price movement, according to the expert, is up to 5% in both directions, if the factor of ruble devaluation due to geopolitical factors does not affect. In a negative scenario, the loan rate can easily reach 13% per annum, and at such prices people simply will not be able to make a purchase – the loan term has already reached 23 years.
“In annual terms, the rate of growth in prices in the market of new buildings in 2022 will decrease to the level of inflation or slightly higher,” says Sergei Nyukhalov, Deputy Director for Sales at Granel Group of Companies. – According to our estimates, apartments on the primary market in the capital region will rise in price by 5-7%. Purchasing activity will continue. The improvement of the situation in the national economy will also contribute to this. According to the results of the 3rd quarter, the GDP growth rate was more than 4%. This will push the demand for primary housing. ” In the new year, the average level of mortgage rates may reach 12%, but their increase will be partially offset by family mortgages and subsidized programs of banks and developers. In this case, a reduced interest rate is provided for the entire loan term in all products, the expert recalls.
“Housing prices have been growing for the previous two years, and now they are at their maximum,” says Valeria Rusakova, commercial director of the development company Marmax. – There are no prerequisites for the same rapid growth in 2022. On the contrary, the demand for housing is gradually decreasing – many have already sold their purchase under preferential mortgage programs. Growth slows down to inertial. ” In addition, purchasing power is falling, the expert notes.
In 2022, housing prices will increase by about 10-15%, according to Alexander Gutorov, commercial director of Strana Development Group. According to him, the cost of housing is influenced not only by the actions of the Central Bank to raise the rate, but also by many factors – the cost of building materials, labor, construction time.
“The rise in housing prices is inevitable: no matter how hard the developers try to subsidize mortgages, the market will still be pressured by high inflation,” adds Andrey Nosonov, head of the mortgage lending department at 3S Group. “It is possible that in January prices will stay at the current level, but then they will start to grow.” Inflation contributes to an increase in the cost of construction, which includes the cost of labor, which rises in price, including due to difficulties with the closure of borders and the outflow of migrants. It drives up prices for building materials and land. These factors will not disappear anywhere, so there is no need to expect price reductions in the near future, he is sure.
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