The 2024 US general election is underway. Most US voters in Germany they will have already sent their votes by postwhile those living in the United States will be able to do so in person on November 5th.
National polls show current Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump running neck and neck at the end of their respective campaigns. At the time of writing, the national forecast 538shows Harris just ahead with 47.9% of the total national vote compared to Trump’s 47%. The results are fairly uniform across the board with each candidate just a point or two above the other in most polls.
All of this is to say that political analysts already expect the situation to be complicated after the election results.
In the meantime, the German people and leaders will be watching with bated breath, waiting to see who the next U.S. president will be and what it might mean for U.S.-German relations.
US-German relations under Trump or Harris
As we reported, German leaders probably would they have difficulty maintaining positive diplomatic relations with the Trump administration.
In short, another Trump term is expected to bring significant challenges to Germany’s (and Europe’s) defense strategy, as well as strained trade relations and severe climate impacts that will ultimately be felt around the world. Furthermore, it would be read as support for alt-right politics.
On the defense side, Trump is expected to withdraw or dramatically reduce support for Ukraine, which could lead to Russia making significant territorial gains in the country. Trump’s own statements have also caused German and European leaders to question his commitment to defending NATO allies if attacked.
On trade, Trump has suggested imposing 20% tariffs on all imports into the United States. The German Institute for Economic Research ifo calculated that this would likely reduce German exports to the United States by around 15% – a significant blow to The German economy already in difficulty.
For these reasons, in a Forsa survey conducted for Stern magazine.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (right) shakes hands with US Vice President Kamala Harris during a meeting at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) on February 17, 2024. Photo by Sven Hoppe/POOL/AFP
On the other hand, Harris’ election would largely be seen as a rejection of Trump’s policies, and even a vote in favor of continuing Biden’s policies overall.
Harris has openly expressed her commitment to continued military support for Ukraine and NATO. It is not expected to introduce tariffs that would impact trade with Germany, and appears to represent a continuation of business as usual on many foreign policy issues.
There are more than one million US citizens living in Europe, of which more than 122,000 live in Germany, and it seems that the current presidential candidates have noticed this.
In a letter from Kamala Harris addressed specifically to U.S. citizens living abroad in late October, she said she recognized “the unique challenges faced by Americans living abroad.”
He expressed understanding for the issues faced by U.S. citizens living abroad, including banking, tax and financial services.
For his part, Donald Trump declared in a video shared on YouTube that he will end double taxation, referring to the requirement for US citizens to file US taxes even on money earned abroad while residing abroad.
It is interesting to note that Political recently reported it a Trump victory could be an advantage for the current German “traffic light” coalition. government – led by Chancellor Scholz and composed of the Social Democrats (SDP), the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP).
The member parties of the traffic light government have suffered significant vote losses both in European elections over the summer and, more recently, in some elections in eastern states, following numerous infighting and a perceived failure to maintain many of their initial promises.
Politico’s The report suggests that the pressure to react to a Trump presidency could force traffic light parties to act with greater rigor and unity.
It’s an interesting topic, but many German leaders have made their views on the issue known, and most of them say they would much prefer to see Harris take the reins.
Then Chancellor Angela Merkel stares at then US President Trump during a G7 meeting in 2018. Photo by JESCO DENZEL / Bundesregierung / AFP
Will Germany prioritize defense in the future?
No matter who wins, this US election could serve as a wake-up call to German leaders that dependence on US military support is a dangerous game.
Germany maintains the EU’s largest army, but its own defense strategy also depends on US weapons and resources.
Announcement
Toward the end of his presidency, Trump ordered the Pentagon to withdraw more than 12,000 American troops stationed in Germany, demonstrating how a personal clash between world leaders can have immediate effects on Germany’s security, even while NATO agreements remain in place.
Now this election has made it clear that as long as Germany remains dependent on US military support, its very defense will likely be left in the hands of a few thousand US voters in swing states whose concerns are centered far from Europe.
Earlier this year, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that Germany is not ready to defend itself, citing a too-small military budget, outdated weapons and a lack of personnel. However, from 2022 Germany has significantly increased its defense budget and military recruitment targets.
Navigating the 2024 U.S. Election: Implications for U.S.-German Relations
As the 2024 U.S. general election approaches, the stakes are high for both American citizens and international observers, particularly in Germany. Current Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a tight race, with recent national polls showing Harris marginally ahead. This upcoming election is not just about leadership in the U.S.; it holds significant consequences for U.S.-German relations and broader international dynamics.
Current Election Landscape
As voters in Germany have likely cast their ballots, those in the U.S. will do so in person on November 5th. The tight race between Harris and Trump highlights the polarized political climate. Analysts suggest that regardless of the outcome, the aftermath of the election will be contentious and complicated.
Potential Outcomes and Their Consequences
- Donald Trump’s Return:
– Strained Diplomacy: If Trump wins, German leaders may struggle to maintain positive relations. His administration’s approach could significantly impact Europe’s defense strategy, especially regarding military support for Ukraine.
– Economic Challenges: Trump’s proposal of imposing tariffs on imports could severely affect trade, leading to a projected 15% reduction in German exports to the U.S., exacerbating economic challenges currently facing Germany.
– Rise of Alternative Right Politics: Trump’s presidency may embolden alt-right sentiments in Germany and elsewhere, causing political discord within Europe.
- Kamala Harris’s Continuation:
– Stability in Foreign Policy: Harris’s election may signal a rejection of Trump’s controversial policies, pledging ongoing military support for Ukraine and NATO. Her approach would likely avoid tariff-induced strains on trade with Germany, fostering a more stable economic relationship.
– Engagement with U.S. Citizens Abroad: Both candidates have shown attention to the needs of over 122,000 U.S. citizens residing in Germany, focusing on issues like banking and taxation. Harris’s outreach in particular indicates a recognition of the unique challenges faced by expatriates.
Broader Impact on German Politics
Interestingly, political observers note that a Trump win might unify Germany’s ruling “traffic light” coalition, composed of the Social Democrats, Greens, and Free Democrats. Facing external pressures from a controversial U.S. administration may compel these parties to act with greater coherence, potentially revitalizing their political fortunes amid recent electoral setbacks.
Conclusion
The upcoming U.S. election is pivotal, not only for American democracy but for its allies across the globe. German leaders have expressed a clear preference for a Harris presidency, anticipating a more collaborative and less turbulent relationship with the United States. As the election date approaches, the international community will watch closely, aware that the outcome will shape global politics for years to come. Whether it be through diplomatic ties, economic partnerships, or defense strategies, the implications of this election extend far beyond U.S. borders.