2023-08-30 18:29:13
It has become the arlesian French leaders. The referendum, quoted with a vengeance for years, is back! Emmanuel Macron brought together the leaders of the opposition, this Wednesday, at the education house of the Legion of Honor in Saint-Denis, near Paris. The objective: to find consensus on future texts, after a year of difficulties in the National Assembly, for lack of an absolute majority.
“The referendum is an option put on the table by the president”, confirms the Elysée. If it has not been organized since 2005, it is because the tool is considered dangerous by the powers in place. But then, what would a “winning” referendum look like for the executive?
A consensual theme (but not too much)…
“His large-scale initiative is absolute communication! But Eric Ciotti (participates) all the same in this meeting to defend our proposals ”, mocks Anne-Laure Blin, LR deputy for Maine-et-Loire. Unimpressed, like other opposition leaders, the right-wing boss, however, asked Emmanuel Macron for a referendum on immigration. Like Jordan Bardella, of the National Rally. The Nupes would like for its part a consultation on the pension reform. Not really what the government has in mind.
“Emmanuel Macron must find a consensual subject, which goes beyond political divisions, to ensure victory, but with real importance, to avoid the personal dimension coming into play and having a plebiscite against him. “says Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet, professor of political communication at Sciences-Po and president of MCBG Conseil. “It’s very difficult to find,” he adds, while the presidential Renaissance party has raised the idea of institutional reform. “Reducing the number of parliamentarians could be an idea, but it would alienate the first concerned,” adds Arnaud Mercier, professor of information and communication sciences at the University of Paris Panthéon-Assas. “If the subject is too consensual, there is also a risk of demobilization of the electorate – we saw it for the referendum on the five-year term (in 2000, 69.81% abstention) – and therefore of not get only half a victory,” he adds.
…which divides its adversaries
Ideally, Emmanuel Macron could also kill two birds with one stone: secure a political victory in the referendum around a subject that would put his opponents in a ditch. “The perfect choice would be to have an opposition that is fairly limited in opinion, but which fractures a political camp. The question of the abaya at school, currently in the news, is a good example, even if it does not seem important enough for such a referendum”, illustrates Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet. A very large majority of French people are therefore against wearing the abaya in schools (82%, according to a CSA survey), but the subject continues to divide the members of the Nupes.
On the contrary, the question of more restrictive migration control could certainly rally a majority of French according to polls, but it would risk doing damage within the presidential majority, which is often divided on the subject. Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet warns: “The referendum is always a risky bet: we know how the debate starts, but never how it ends. The argument can be faulted, as we have seen in another context on pension reform”.
A referendum only announced
And if, finally, the ideal referendum for Emmanuel Macron was, once again, the one that is announced… without ever organizing it. “Given the current context, the ideal would be to show the will to hold a referendum, which would be blocked by the opposition. It always pays to show that we want to give the floor to the French, we have seen that the RIC of “yellow vests” was a very popular measure, ”notes Arnaud Mercier.
The government has already indicated that it was thinking about a form of “preferendum”, made up of multiple questions which would not necessarily have any legal impact afterwards, suggesting that it was not necessarily very keen to go as far as referendum. “Emmanuel Macron’s only concern is to capture the attention of the French and the media, to stay at the center of the game to avoid erosion and trivialization”, analyzes Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet.
This Wednesday, Olivier Véran announced a new episode in “the major political initiative” promised by Emmanuel Macron. A government seminar will meet on September 6 to follow up on the day’s exchanges with opposition leaders. Enough to stay the center of attention?
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