Immigration is a major issue in the US presidential election.
Both Republican and Democratic candidates talk about the need to strengthen controls on those entering the country, especially at the border with Mexico.
Donald Trump He has repeatedly warned of an “invasion” of immigrants and promised to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants.
His Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, accused the former president of “fanning the flames of fear and division” on immigration, but nevertheless reiterated his support for the border security bill, which would include hundreds of millions of dollars to strengthen security at the southern border of Village.
But what role does immigration play in the United States, the nation with the largest foreign-born population, and what would happen if there were no immigrants?
Population
Without immigrants, the U.S. population would decline significantly.
The foreign-born population has reached a record number 47.8 million in 2023which means 14.3% of the population United States.
Mexico is by far the largest source country with 10.6 million people, followed by India, with 2.8 million, and China, with 2.5 million.
However, although the number of immigrants has reached a record number, the overall growth of the US population is slowing due to the phenomenon decline in the birth rate.
Between 2010 and 2020, the country experienced the slowest population growth of any decade since the 1930s, when the birth rate plummeted to an all-time low during the Great Depression.
This means that this country, like many others, is facing the challenges of aging of the populationwith rising healthcare costs and fewer people of working age.
According to forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, a tipping point will be reached in 2040 where deaths will exceed births.
For this reason, some economists and pro-immigration groups argue that immigration should be allowed to increase to meet the needs of the economy, especially in rural areas.
Economic impact
Without immigrants, the American economy would suffer, says Tarek Hassan, an associate professor of economics at Boston University.
“If we completely expelled immigrants, we would be talking about a reduction in GDP per capita of between 5% and 10%which would mean that per capita wealth would decrease and total GDP would be much lower because there would be fewer people,” says Hassan.
He adds that, according to his research, immigration “increases innovation, which increases productivity which is not limited to a single sector: improves the overall innovative capacity of the US economy“.
Immigrants are also more likely to be of working age. Although they represent about 14% of the US population, they are almost half 19% of the workforce There are approximately 31 million workers in this country, and according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, they have higher labor force participation rates than native-born citizens.
About 91% of immigrants age 16 and older arriving in the United States between 2022 and 2034 will be under the age of 55, compared to just 62% of the general adult population, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts.
Getty Images Seventy percent of U.S. farm workers are immigrants, many of them undocumented.
According to the U.S. Department of Labor’s National Farmworker Survey, 70% of agricultural workers are immigrants many of them are undocumented.
Losing them “would leave many farm owners struggling to find enough labor to grow, harvest, and prepare fruits and vegetables for local consumers during peak seasons,” says Nan Wu, director of research at the American Immigration Council (AIC), an organization that deals with immigration group.
An argument often made by critics of immigration is that the influx of foreign workers willing to work for a lower wage depresses the wages of the native population.
But a 2014 review by the University of California of 27 studies on the economic impact of immigration concluded that the average effect of immigration on native-born wages was essentially zero.
A more recent study from Eastern Illinois University concluded that the growth in the number of immigrants may even have an impact “positive but statistically not significant” in wage growth.
Taxes
Los immigrant families contributed almost a sixth of all taxpayer dollars, nearly $580 billion in 2022, according to an AIC analysis.
Los undocumented immigrants They represent about 23% of the total immigrant population, or about 11 million people, of which about four million are from Mexico, according to an analysis by the think tank Pew Research Center.
However, Daniel Costa, director of immigration law and policy research at the Economic Policy Institute, says that while the economic impact of immigration can be positive at the national level, the outcome can be negative in some states, especially in short term.
In a recent study, his team used the example of a large influx of immigrants who earn low wages but are entitled to benefits, tilting the situation “Short-term fiscal balance heading for a negative impact”.
For this reason, Costa and his team advocate for greater redistribution of federal funds at the state level, giving areas with higher levels of immigration more money to respond to any challenges that may arise.
Professor Giovanni Peri, a leading immigration expert and economist at the University of California, notes that the pressure placed on communities by immigrants can be similar to what happens when the population of people born in the United States grows.
Peri says it will “also put pressure on services and housing if housing does not adapt”.
Innovation and entrepreneurship
A significant percentage of immigrants or their children have become immigrants prominent businessmen.
About 45% of companies Fortune 500 – an annual list of the 500 largest American companies by revenue – were founded by immigrants or their children, and the immigrants were responsible for 55% of startups US dollars worth $1 billion or more.
Immigrants have also played a key role in global technological advances, many of whom initially arrived in the United States international students.
According to the Association of International Educators, in the 2022-2023 academic year, more than one million international students contributed $40 billion to the U.S. economy and supported more than 368,000 jobs through tuition and fees of stay.
Public opinion
Despite the role immigrants play in the American economy, a recent Gallup poll found that
There is broad political consensus on the need to strengthen immigration controls, particularly regarding illegal crossings at the Mexican border.
Peri argues that some politicians and the press portray immigration as equivalent to “chaos at the border” for stories of illegal entries into the country, rather than focusing on the broader impact of immigration.
“People often hear about immigration as a… ‘flood’ coming from the southern border so he thinks it is excessive and harmful,” says Peri, instead of analyzing the role of immigrants in the economy and compensating for demographic decline.
But according to Tarek Hassan of Boston University, “over the past two decades, immigration has been particularly high, which may test society’s ability to integrate newcomers.
“And although immigration has a positive impact in the economic, social and cultural spheres, there could be aspects that people are not comfortable with“.
Interview Between Time.news Editor and Tarek Hassan, Economist at Boston University
Editor: Good afternoon, everyone! Today, we’re diving into a crucial topic that’s making headlines in the current U.S. presidential election: immigration. With us is Tarek Hassan, an associate professor of economics at Boston University, who has extensive research on the economic implications of immigration. Thank you for joining us, Tarek.
Tarek Hassan: Thank you for having me. It’s a pleasure to be here!
Editor: So, let’s get right into it. Both Republican and Democratic candidates are emphasizing the need for stronger border controls. Yet, immigration has a profound impact on our economy. Can you elaborate on how immigration affects the U.S. economy?
Tarek Hassan: Absolutely! Immigration plays a critical role in our economy. If we were to completely remove immigrants, we could see a reduction in GDP per capita by between 5% and 10%. This significant dip would indicate a decrease in per capita wealth alongside a drop in total GDP, primarily because there would simply be fewer people contributing to the economy.
Editor: That’s quite a substantial impact. So, to what extent do immigrants contribute to the labor force?
Tarek Hassan: Immigrants are particularly vital to our labor force. Although they constitute about 14% of the total U.S. population, they represent nearly 19% of the workforce. This is crucial because a large proportion of immigrants are of working age. In fact, projections suggest that around 91% of immigrants arriving from 2022 to 2034 will be under the age of 55, compared to just 62% of the general adult population.
Editor: It’s fascinating to see those numbers. Furthermore, we often hear claims that immigrants depress wages for native workers. What does the research say about this?
Tarek Hassan: That’s a common argument, but research suggests otherwise. A comprehensive review from the University of California looking at 27 studies indicated that the average effect of immigration on native-born wages was essentially zero. More recent studies have found that the influx of immigrants may even have a positive, albeit statistically insignificant, impact on wage growth.
Editor: So, what about the contributions of immigrants in terms of taxes? How do they influence public finances?
Tarek Hassan: Immigrants make substantial contributions to our tax system. In 2022, immigrant families contributed nearly $580 billion, which is almost one-sixth of all taxpayer dollars. While undocumented immigrants comprise about 23% of the total immigrant population, their contributions still play a significant role in local and national economies.
Editor: That’s impressive! Moving beyond the economic impacts, what do you think is the cultural significance of immigration in America?
Tarek Hassan: Immigration has historically been a cornerstone of American innovation and entrepreneurship. About 45% of Fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants or their children, and they accounted for 55% of startups worth over a billion dollars. Immigrants bring diverse perspectives and ideas that drive innovation across various sectors, which is essential for maintaining the U.S. competitive edge globally.
Editor: As the conversation around immigration continues to evolve, especially in the current political climate, what do you think policymakers should prioritize?
Tarek Hassan: Policymakers need to recognize the critical role of immigrants in our economy and society. Instead of solely focusing on enforcement and border security, they should also consider creating pathways for legal immigration and addressing the challenges that come with population growth, such as infrastructure and housing. Balancing border security with a welcoming approach to immigrants can drive sustainable economic growth.
Editor: Thank you, Tarek. Your insights shed light on the multifaceted role immigration plays in shaping our economy and society. As we move forward, it’s vital for the public and policymakers alike to understand these dynamics.
Tarek Hassan: Thank you for the discussion. It’s been great to share this information!
Editor: And thank you to our audience for tuning in. We’ll continue to explore this important issue in the days to come. Stay informed!