2023-05-14 06:15:26
Presidential and legislative elections in Turkey will take place on Sunday, May 14, in a country in economic and political crisis, marked by the earthquake that hit the border regions in the south and south-east of the country in February. The electoral campaign has proved to be the most difficult for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to conduct since he came to power in 2003, facing a broad opposition alliance represented by Kemal Kiliçdaroglu.
A controversial third Erdogan candidacy
The president, head of government, is elected by majority vote in two rounds for a five-year term. He is assisted by a vice-president. If no candidate exceeds 50% in the first round, the second will take place on May 28.
Revised by Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2017, the Constitution limits the exercise of the function to two terms. The Head of State and his supporters justified his candidacy for a third (after a first election in 2014 and a second in 2018) by modifying the Basic Law – which would have reset the counters to zero – then by the early triggering elections, initially scheduled for June.
The Constitution provides for this derogation from the ceiling of two terms only if the change in the date of the poll is validated by two-thirds of Parliament, which was not the case: Mr. Erdogan used his prerogatives resulting from the transition to presidentialism to decree it. His candidacy was validated by the High Electoral Council.
Sunday, the ballot opens at 8 a.m. and ends at 5 p.m. local time (7 a.m. and 4 p.m. in Paris). The media will be able to publish the information and press releases that will be issued by the electoral commission one hour after the closing of the polling stations.
Erdogan’s goal: stay in power
Recep Tayyip Erdogan presents himself under the colors of the Popular Alliance, which brings together the AKP (Justice and Development Party, conservative) and the MHP (Nationalist Action Party, ultranationalist). After serving as Prime Minister from 2003 to 2014, he was elected President of the Republic and re-elected in 2018.
If he can count on some 30% of diehards, he multiplies campaign promises targeting women and young people – pension increases, housing construction, reduced energy bills – and invectives, accusing his rivals of collusion with THE “terrorists” of the PKK, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, vilifies their links with the West and its “conspiracies”and presents them as « pro-LGBT » – an obsession – who want “destroy the family”.
It also enjoys the support of smaller movements, such as the Prosperity Party (RP), the Free Cause Party (Hüda Par), the Great Union Party (BBP) or the Democratic Left Party (DSP). , who joined the coalition for the legislative elections. The outgoing head of state was credited Thursday with 43.7% of voting intentions by the Konda Institute. An estimate to be taken with caution, for lack of a harmonized accounting method and often because of proximity to political parties.
The “Table of Six” to end the Erdogan era
Erdogan faces two competitors, but only one real adversary: Kemal Kiliçdaroglu. At 74, this trained economist is the candidate of the Republican People’s Party (CHP, social democrat) founded by the father of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. He gathered around him a plural coalition of six parties: the “Table of Six”.
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To launch his candidacy, Mr Kiliçdaroglu quickly cleared what could appear to be an obstacle to his campaign, in a predominantly Sunni Turkey: his membership of Alevism, a heterodox branch of Islam, which he mentioned in one of his videos, which have gone viral on social networks.
Sinan Ogan (55) is the second opposition candidate in the colors of the ATA alliance, which brings together four nationalist movements. He obtains 4.8% of the voting intentions. Muharrem Ince (59), leader of the Nation Party (nationalist), who was credited with 2% to 4% of the voting intentions, finally withdrew his candidacy three days before the election, which could favor Kemal Kiliçdaroglu .
An opposition program to return to a parliamentary system
The opposition promises the abandonment of the presidential regime introduced in 2018 and the return to a strict separation of powers. She wants to return to a parliamentary system in which the powers of the executive will be entrusted to a prime minister elected by Parliament. The President will be elected for a single term of seven years. She promises a “independent and impartial justice” and the release of many prisoners. The coalition, which includes Le Bon Parti, an influential nationalist formation, has not, however, made any concrete proposal to resolve the Kurdish question.
Kemal Kiliçdaroglu wants to enshrine the right to wear the veil in law, in order to reassure voters who fear that his party, historically hostile to the headscarf, will reverse certain achievements obtained under Erdogan. In a country where inflation is exploding and where the signs of impoverishment of the population are multiplying, the opposition assures that it will bring back the rise in prices “in one digit within two years” et “will restore credibility to the Turkish lira”.
Aware that Ankara angered its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by forging a privileged relationship with Moscow in 2016, “The National Alliance promises to reaffirm Turkey’s Western vocation”, Ilke Toygür, professor of European geopolitics at Carlos III University in Madrid, told Agence France-Presse. But the opposition says it wants to pursue a “balanced dialogue” with Russia, in order to contribute in particular to ending the conflict in Ukraine. The priority will remain to reconnect with Bashar Al-Assad’s Syria to ensure the return of the 3.7 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey, a promise that worries human rights defenders.
A renewal of Parliament expected
Voters must renew the 600 seats of the Turkish Grand National Assembly. The (unicameral) parliament has seen its powers limited by the constitutional reform adopted in 2017, which endowed Turkey with a presidential system and authorizes the head of state to govern by decree. An opposition majority would remain a hotbed of ideological resistance if Erdogan remains in power; conversely, a victory for the AKP and its allies in the Grand Assembly would block the constitutional projects of an opposition coalition elected to the presidency. Deputies are elected for five years by multi-member proportional voting with closed lists.
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