When will mortgages go down: this is the positive forecast

When will mortgages go down: this is the positive forecast

2023-09-09 11:32:02

He euribor, the reference index for the majority of variable mortgages sold in Spain, closed August at 4.073%, which implies a moderation after 20 months on the rise. However, this small decrease is not reflected in the renewals of variable mortgages, which on average cost 250 euros more per monthor what is the same 3,000 euros per year.

The interest rates set by the European Central Bank (ECB) stood at 4% in the eurozone, so mortgages usually start from that key percentage. In the case of those already granted, mortgagees who have a fixed credit They breathe easy although those indebted to the variables do not.

Therefore it is understandable that many mortgage holders wonder when will mortgages go down. The president of the Government, Pedro Sanchezand the vice president of Economic Affairs, Nadia Calviño, have committed to expand access to mortgage relief measures included in the code of good practices to incomes of up to 37,800 euros.

Calviño pointed out that this electoral promise, which would be one of the first measures to be adopted in a possible next legislature, has been defined because The economic situation is better than expected. and interest rates are rising more than expected.

Bankinter’s forecast

The bank led by María Dolores Dancausa has just updated its forecasts for the mortgage market and maintains that the Euribor will exceed 3% until 2025. Bankinter’s analysis department foresees a price decrease close to 5% between 2023 and 2024 and that the Euribor closes this year above 4%.

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The Savings Bank Foundation (Funcas) places the annual average of the Euribor for this year at 4.25% and 4% in 2024. BBVA Research, for its part, believes that it could reach 4.5%. The forecast is that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue with its current policy of raising rates up to two more times this year, so the cost of money could reach 4.5% at the end of the year and hence its impact. in mortgages.

Related news

Faced with this circumstance, many mortgage holders are repaying part of their debt with the banks and renegotiating the conditions of the signed loans.

According to data from the Bank of Spain, compiled by the Spanish Mortgage Association (AHE), between January and April more than 1.3 billion were renegotiated, triple that of last year. For its part, the amount of amortization reaches 8,326 million euros in the first five months of the year.

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