While the Moderates Seem Content, Concerns Remain Hidden Below

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Over 1,400 moderates are gathering in Karlstad for the party’s Sweden meeting with the urgency of gaining government power. However, there are several challenges they must face. The collapse of the government’s voter support is a significant issue, and Magdalena Andersson would win big if Swedes were to vote today. Additionally, Ulf Kristersson believes that bringing Sweden into NATO is crucial, but there has been no clear path towards membership. Failure to do so may affect the Kristersson government’s credibility.

The moderates also face challenges from the Sweden Democrats, who can easily step in and out of the government’s framework. There is a looming possibility that the Sweden Democrats may outgrow the Moderates in the next election, making the continuation of the right-wing government impossible.

Women and metropolitan voters who turned left in the elections pose another set of challenges for the Moderates. They shunned the party’s strategy of taking SD in the boat to reach the 175 mandates required for government power, making it difficult for the Moderates to recapture them without abandoning SD.

The Moderates are also under pressure to implement economic measures in a situation where many Swedes are worse off. The rising interest rates pose a significant challenge, and Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson is eager to start the moderate tax reduction machine while acknowledging the risk of triggering inflation.

In the long run, the government must address electricity prices and compensate customers. The Moderates promise new nuclear power to address this issue, but it may take many years and billions before producing the first kilowatt.

The party’s “get Sweden in order” campaign is facing difficulties in combating gang crime. Tougher laws are in the works, but there are no guarantees of fewer shootings, and it takes time.

While parties rarely suffer major damage from personal scandals, the Moderates are facing long-term political challenges that require attention.

The upwards of 1,400 moderates who are now meeting in Karlstad for the party’s Sweden meeting must hurry to enjoy government power. Going forward, there is all the more to worry about.

The opinion

The government’s voter support has collapsed after the election and if the Swedes were to vote today, Magdalena Andersson would win big. Nevertheless, this is one of the moderates’ minor problems. Partly because it is probably a long time until the next election, and partly because so far the Moderates are the party in the government base that has fared the best.

Nato

According to Ulf Kristersson, his and the government’s most important task is to bring Sweden into NATO. But the self-assurance the government first radiated in the NATO issue has been replaced by increasingly faint assurances that membership will probably come eventually. Even if Sweden has become a pawn in a larger power game, continued failure will cast a shadow over the Kristersson government’s ability.

The Sweden Democrats

When the government makes a painting, Jimmie Åkesson can step out of the framework of the Tidö Agreement – when things go better, he can step back in and put his own signature on the work. The prospect that the Moderates will be smaller than the SD in the next election also causes moderate strategists to lie awake in the dog hour. Even if the united right wins again in 2026, it could make a continued right-wing government impossible.

Women and metropolitans

The metropolitan voters abandoned the Moderates in the election, above all the female voters who moved to the left. It is not due to a strategic miss on the part of the moderate leadership. On the contrary, it is an inevitable consequence of the strategy the party has chosen: To take SD in the boat to reach the 175 mandates required for government power. With that, the many women and metropolitan voters who shun SD were also chosen. Recapturing them without abandoning SD is like the cake you both want to eat and keep.

The economic policy

The moderates have taken over government power in a situation where many Swedes are worse off. This usually punishes the sitting government and Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson is pressured by demands for measures. Most sensitive to the government’s constituencies are the rising interest rates, which the government does not even have control over. Svantesson is eager to start the moderate tax reduction machine. At the same time, it sits badly with her own warnings to blow up inflation. But the political need to show results is urgent – ​​it speaks for a job tax deduction as early as 2025.

The electrical issues

The government does not have control over electricity prices, but in the long run it cannot continue to compensate electricity customers either. Now they are promising a first sod for new nuclear power no later than 2026. For the staunch moderate voters, nuclear power is important, but for the less dedicated, electricity prices are more important. The transition from cheerfully swaying opposition to bearing responsibility for producing new electricity production in the next few years requires the Moderates to approve the wind power the party has been helping to spread skepticism against. And nuclear power construction in other countries shows that it can take many years and billions from that first sod to the first kilowatt.

The crime

The moderates went to the polls to “get Sweden in order”. But gang crime is not a faucet governments can turn on and off. The fact that tougher laws – in several cases criticized for a lack of legal certainty – are in the works is no guarantee of fewer shootings. They also take time. If the hard-to-predict gang wars continue to elude the police in 2026, the responsibility will fall to the Moderates.

Right now, the Moderates’ crisis managers are busy with the extortion case surrounding one of the party’s Riksdagmen. But in the long run, parties rarely suffer major damage from such events. The moderates’ long-term concerns are political and not personal.

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