2024-09-01 22:00:13
Will India give up on the rice market? Buyers and sellers have been waiting for the relaxation of export restrictions in force for almost two years.
Since the proclamation of India’s election results in early JuneThe rice world is hanging on an announcement from New Delhi that did not come. Everyone says “ tomorrow”, but if nothing happens, sum up a French businessman. As a result, the market is in a precarious position.
Our prices are very high. and this has been going on for a long time,” comments one of our interlocutors. At this point, there is no question of anticipation and a purchase to save. Whether it’s Indonesia, the Philippines, or African importers, everyone is pushing ahead and ordering what’s necessary. A customer who bought 40,000 tons, for example, now only buys 20,000 Others have postponed their purchases, explained Patricio Mendez del Villar, economist at the Agricultural Research Center and International Cooperation for Development (CIRAD). .
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Price reduction in Indian market
Everyone is patient, hoping that India’s full return to trade will mean lower prices, as was the case before the implementation of First restrictions in September 2022 on broken rice.
This hope is contributed by the prices observed on the local Indian market: in recent days, milled rice is 100 dollars lower than on the international market. A price which, even if it is raised by export taxes, can still be very competitive and attractive for importers.
Harvest October, debate for the release of products
In a month and a half, the new Indian harvest will increase the stocks. which will be 15 already % up to 20% higher than usual this time », according to Patricio Mendez del Villar.
Levels of production exceptional » It is expected this year, according to the last letter of Osiris, will then probably not leave the option to the authorities, who sooner or later will have to release the products for economic reasons.
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