2024-06-03 19:47:41
Political jockeying and hypothesis for the highest posts has been occurring for months behind the scenes
On June 10, the day after the European Parliament elections, the true battle begins: the handing out of Europe’s 4 high posts and dozens of smaller prizes among the many primary political households.
To start with, the 27 heads of state and authorities of the EU should attain an settlement on the subsequent presidents of the European Fee, the European Council and the European Parliament, in addition to the subsequent excessive consultant of the EU’s international coverage.
Political jockeying and hypothesis for the highest jobs has been occurring for months behind the scenes, particularly because the anticipated surge of the far proper appears set to shake up conventional energy dynamics.
These leaders will set the bloc’s political compass till 2029. Simply as telling shall be who comes up empty-handed amid the negotiations, revealing the middle of energy within the new EU.
The principle takeaway? Overlook about holidays earlier than August.
June 10: Brussels
Waking up bleary-eyed on Monday, June 10, the most important political minds will weigh the election outcomes and contemplate completely different situations.
If the centre-right European Individuals’s Celebration stays the biggest group within the European Parliament, they are going to really feel emboldened to appoint present European Fee chief Ursula von der Leyen for a second time period.
The EPP and von der Leyen’s right-hand man Bjorn Seibert will instantly do the mathematics to see if a majority of 361 votes within the European Parliament is feasible. The subsequent morning, nonetheless, the image is not going to be full.
In most nationwide elections, the variety of seats for a celebration is just obvious after we’ve got the ultimate outcomes. Within the European Parliament, MEPs don’t formally develop into a part of a European political group till all of the teams have met and formally agreed on their membership.
Within the first few weeks after the election, parliament shall be busy with deal-making as teams attempt to gobble up the nationwide events, tricking them with small prizes resembling highly effective committee coordinator positions.
Outgoing parliament president Roberta Mezzola, who’s eyeing a second two-and-a-half-year time period, is more likely to convene a gathering of present political group leaders on June 11 to take inventory of the outcomes.
As soon as a reputation emerges from the Council (extra on that under), the teams will negotiate to get “their” insurance policies into the Fee’s work schedule – and threaten to not assist them if they do not say sure.
On the first conferences of the teams, scheduled from June 18 to July 3, the teams may also select their new leaders as the brand new political composition of the parliament is fashioned. Nonetheless, new teams could be fashioned at any time.
June 13-15: G7 assembly in Puglia, Italy
There shall be no formal offers on the G7. However provided that von der Leyen, European Council President Charles Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will see one another for the primary time because the election, the highest posts will inevitably be shared and in a high-level dialog on the five-star Borgo Egnazia lodge.
June 17: European Council, Brussels
EU leaders will meet for an off-the-cuff EU summit dinner in Brussels. There’ll nonetheless be no offers for high jobs, as this would be the first official dialogue on the subject led by the President of the European Council (who will himself get replaced).
The political events could have inside conferences with their respective leaders to debate technique earlier than heading to the European Council constructing for dinner. For instance, the EPP, whose chief negotiators within the Council shall be Greece’s Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Poland’s Donald Tusk (who chaired the identical negotiations as Council President in 2019), intends to reaffirm its assist for Von der Leyen.
It stays to be seen how a lot energy the political negotiators could have through the course of, however they’re value keeping track of, Politico writes. “Please do not ask me for names,” Tusk mentioned within the final spherical earlier than the election.
Earlier than the Council proposes a reputation, Michel is more likely to go to the European Parliament to seek the advice of with political group leaders, simply as Tusk did in 2019.
June 27-28: European Council, Brussels
The hope of EU capitals is to have a deal prepared for the very best jobs at this summit. The principle political households – the EPP, the Socialists and the Liberals (who sit as Renew Europe in Parliament) – will lay declare to each single slice of Europe’s political pie.
EU leaders need to agree on all high posts on the similar time, taking into consideration the stability between completely different political teams, geographical range and gender stability.
The 27 EU leaders should agree on a Fee president by a certified majority – a majority of nations representing nearly all of Europe’s inhabitants, however the bar is decrease for different posts. It’s not mentioned that they are going to resolve all the pieces without delay.
Leaders will want readability that von der Leyen will win sufficient assist within the European Parliament earlier than agreeing on the remainder of the bundle. With a view to be re-elected, von der Leyen will want the assist of 361 out of 720 MEPs.
On condition that she had a slim majority of 9 votes in 2019, getting the required votes is not going to be straightforward, as this time she is more likely to face a bigger far-right contingent mixed with a smaller inexperienced block.
On the summit, leaders may also signal the Strategic Agenda, a doc agreed each 5 years by EU leaders to set out the bloc’s targets for the upcoming European Fee.
July 16: European Parliament, Strasbourg
The European Parliament will begin its new mandate with 720 deputies. Their first precedence shall be to vote for their very own president.
This submit is normally shared between the EPP (Maltese EPP MEP Metzola presently sits on the throne) and the half-term Socialists. An analogous deal is more likely to occur this time round, maybe permitting Mezzola to proceed his tenure with an S&D member taking on in 2026.
By this time, the political teams in parliament ought to have reached a pre-draft settlement on a complete bundle of inside roles, starting from vice-presidents to committee chairs. About 100 roles are anticipated.
The deal as a complete needs to be primarily based on the respective dimension of the political teams following a system of proportional illustration.
Parliament will then must schedule a vote to verify the European Council’s nomination for Fee President.
The Greens, Socialists and Renew presently need to schedule the vote throughout plenary week in July to go away much less time for the appropriate to get their claws into von der Leyen or whoever else is being touted, somewhat than ready till subsequent session in September.
The EPP initially demanded a vote in September, however now seems to have deserted that demand.
In the event that they vote and the nominee – say von der Leyen – is rejected, the European Council has one other month to give you an alternate. This may be an unprecedented political disaster for the European Union.