2024-08-01 13:15:44
After the death of Ismail Haniya, who was killed in a rocket attack in Tehran, which Hamas attributed to Israel, several significant questions arise, notes AFP in an analytical material.
Who will succeed Ismail Haniyeh as head of Hamas?
The number two figure in the movement, Saleh al-Aruri, was killed earlier this year in a strike attributed to Israel in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Two potential successors to Hania are now emerging, BTA writes.
Musa Abu Marzouk, is a high-ranking representative of the political bureau of “Hamas”, considered one of Haniya’s close associates. He is more moderate than the representatives of the armed wing of Hamas and calls for the acceptance of the 1967 borders for a possible future Palestinian state. However, this is a controversial position for Hamas.
In the 1990s, Marzouk lived in the United States, where he was arrested and accused of being involved in financing the armed wing of Hamas. Then he lived in Jordan, Egypt and Qatar. Marzouk has represented Hamas in a number of indirect negotiations in Israel.
Another potential successor to Haniya is Khalil al-Haya, who is the number two figure in the Hamas political bureau in Gaza and who knows well the leader of Hamas’s armed wing, Yahya Sinwar.
In 2006, Al Haya led the parliamentary bloc of Hamas, immediately after the victory of the Palestinian movement in the parliamentary elections in the Palestinian territories.
Al Haya is an ardent follower of the armed struggle. A number of his family members were killed during Israeli strikes on Gaza in 2007.
According to some observers, Khaled Meshaal, who was the predecessor of Ismail Haniya, may return to the head of Hamas.
A representative of the movement, who wished to remain anonymous, told AFP that “Hamas” will overcome this crisis. He added that the leaders of Hamas killed in the past only strengthened the power of the movement.
The consequences for Israel of Haniya’s death
And if some Israelis rejoiced on social networks because of Haniya’s death, now they are also starting to wonder what will happen to the hostages captured during the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7 last year and taken to Gaza. There are also fears of a military escalation.
The question also arises as to what will happen to the indirect negotiations between Israel and Hania. The Doha-based political leadership of Hamas, led by Haniya, had pressured Sinwar and the Hamas leadership in Gaza to accept a ceasefire, experts said.
According to Mihmayir Abusada, a Palestinian political scientist, a retaliatory strike for Israel could come from the West Bank or from Hamas groups in southern Lebanon. It can take the form of a suicide bombing or shooting at Israeli soldiers or settlers.
Israel’s wartime cabinet will meet in Jerusalem later today, according to Israeli media.
What will be the consequences for the region?
The armed wing of Hamas has already threatened that the killing of Haniya takes the war in Gaza to a new level and will have huge consequences for the region. Iran has not yet announced how it will respond to the death, which occurred on Iranian soil and sparked criticism of Iranian security forces.
Hamas and Iran do not want a regional war, but a crime must be punished, Khali al-Haya said at a press conference in Tehran, quoted by Reuters.