2024-08-03 22:21:40
Source: Trend
Author: Tahmez Asadov
Armenia is confused about whom to serve and which political pole. This directly leads to an uncertain situation in the process of peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Another clear example of this is the failed meeting of the leaders of the two countries within the framework of the European Political Union (EUP) Summit in London.
Official Yerevan continues to go back and forth between France, Russia, and the United States. As strange as it sounds, all three countries are members of the OSCE Minsk Group. At this point, it is appropriate to pay attention to one issue: It is about official Baku’s joint appeal to the OSCE to cancel the format of the Minsk Group as a confidence measure. At this time, everything becomes clearer. It is concluded that behind Nikol Pashinyan’s rejection of the offer to meet in London, the hand of France and the United States is particularly strong.
It is definitely not excluded that these forces are worried about being sidelined from the processes in the South Caucasus. Baku’s conditions for peace are clear and definite. It seems that, for this, the Azerbaijani side demands changes to the Armenian Constitution and the removal of provisions reflecting territorial claims, and because the OSCE has set the issue of the release of the Minsk Group as a condition for Yerevan, it does not allow the thought that the aforementioned circles of the West will be completely out of the hands of Armenia.
Especially the position of the official Parisi in this process is fully and clearly in the middle. Emmanuel Macron’s government is doing everything in its power to ensure that the situation in the South Caucasus does not become stable, and that the political and military situation in the region is completely out of control. In this matter, along with France, the process of militarization of the region, especially Armenia, by the EU and India has become widespread.
In this sense, it is impossible not to mention the holding of provocative exercises, including the offensive elements of the “peacekeeping contingent” in Armenia together with the United States. But official Baku created enough opportunities and opportunities for Washington to approach the processes more adequately. Azerbaijan gave the USA the opportunity to act as a mediator, but instead of taking advantage of it, Washington acted within the framework determined by the pressure of pro-Armenian circles.
The main goal of the West and the United States is clear as day. The mentioned circles are first of all puzzled about how to save Armenia from the clutches of Russia. They seem to think that rescuing the military-political power of Armenia from the orbit of the Kremlin will be enough to take control of the situation in the South Caucasus region. But statistics give a strong reason to say that this is impossible, at least in the near term:
1. Looking at the trade turnover of Armenia with Russia in the last 6 months alone, it is possible to see that $8.5 billion worth of “trade” has taken place. This means more than last year.
2. Another interesting point is that the West and the USA, led by France, have been doing their best for 4 years to completely distance Armenia from all international institutions where Russia is the main moderator. We are talking about CSTO, AED (Eurasian Economic Union) and CIS. However, today it was officially announced that Yerevan has been removed from these organizations, moreover, Yerevan has applied to raise its status in the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization).
Washington has made very serious mistakes in its plans for the South Caucasus since Biden came to power. We are talking about the US straining relations with Azerbaijan, which has the only access to Central Asia, and Georgia, which has the only access to the Black Sea from the region. Another clear example of this: in 2024, while China already has two strategic partners in the region, the relations of the United States with its ally Georgia are already deteriorating day by day.
Against the background of all this, we can note only one achievement of the USA in the South Caucasus during the Biden administration: the issue of Russian border guards leaving the Zvartnots airport. However, this does not mean that Russia has lost control over that area.
If we refer to the listed facts, we can say that Armenia does not have much time left to think deeply and come to a final decision. Unlike the official Baku, we are witnessing the vanity of the ruling circles of Armenia. If the Armenian authorities, whose constructive expectations are decreasing day by day, do not stop looking for issues related to the fate of the region elsewhere, Azerbaijan will have to unilaterally resolve the further course of events.