2023-11-03 14:48:54
November 3, 2023
Baghdad/Al-Masala Al-Hadath: While Israeli forces are intensifying their attack on the Gaza Strip with the aim of eliminating the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), diplomats in Washington, the United Nations, the Middle East and other regions have begun to evaluate the “what next” options if Israel is able to overthrow the movement that runs the Strip, and the challenges. What they face in this regard is huge.
An informed source says that these discussions include options such as deploying multinational forces after the end of the latest escalation in the conflict in Gaza and forming an interim administration led by Palestinians, but they exclude politicians affiliated with Hamas, granting a temporary role to fill the vacuum in security and administration to neighboring Arab countries, and temporary UN supervision of the situation. sector.
Another American source described the process as still being informally “in the process of brainstorming ideas.”
There are major questions about the situation, including whether Israel will actually be able to eliminate Hamas as it promised, and whether the United States, Western allies and Arab governments will commit to contributing soldiers to separate Israel and the Palestinians beyond long-standing hesitation on the matter.
The White House said on Wednesday that “there are no plans or intentions” to deploy US forces on the ground in the Gaza Strip.
As these discussions gain momentum, health authorities in Gaza say that more than nine thousand have been killed in the narrow, besieged coastal enclave, crowded with a population of 2.3 million people, half of whom are already displaced and homeless, and that hospitals crowded with sick, injured and sheltering in them no longer have fuel for electricity or medicines. It could no longer receive more, and the land became narrower, as there were no longer any sites that could hold the dead and the dead in graves.
It is also not clear whether the Palestinian National Authority, which has limited self-rule in areas of the occupied West Bank, will be able or willing to take over the administration of the Strip. On Tuesday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken raised the possibility of “renewing and reviving” the National Authority, but the administration of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is being pursued by accusations of corruption and mismanagement.
Any entity that seeks to impose authority on the Gaza Strip after the war will also have to deal with the general impression among Palestinians that it is beholden to Israel.
Israel launched its fierce attack on the Gaza Strip after Hamas carried out a surprise attack on October 7, killing 1,400 in southern Israel and detaining more than 200.
Even if Israel is able to overthrow the Hamas leaders, it will be almost impossible to eliminate pro-militant sentiment among the residents of the Gaza Strip, which increases the risk that any party in charge of its administration will be exposed to new attacks, which may include suicide bombings.
Aaron David Miller, a former American negotiator in the Middle East file, says, “If the Israelis succeed in crushing Hamas, I think it will be very difficult to form a ruling structure there that has legitimacy and effectiveness.”
He continued, saying, “For me, the possibilities of what comes next are fantastic.”
These discussions are increasing at a time when Israel is expanding its fierce air, land and sea attack on the Gaza Strip, but they are also driven by what American officials consider Israel’s failure to come up with a vision for what comes after the final confrontation.
* The cost of reconstruction
There is growing awareness of the fact that the amount of international aid required to rebuild the Gaza Strip will be enormous, and that money will be almost impossible to obtain from Western governments if Hamas remains the party running it.
Blinken said, minutes before leaving on Thursday for a visit to Israel and Jordan, that his meetings in the region would not only deal with “concrete steps” to reduce harm to civilians in the Gaza Strip but would also touch on matters of post-war planning.
“We are focused on the current day,” Blinken told reporters. “We also need to focus on what comes after that.” He indicated that he sees the basis for permanent peace as being on a path at the end of which a Palestinian state will be established, a goal that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long resisted.
* Lessons learned
American officials say in private conversations that they and their Israeli counterparts talked about drawing lessons from mistakes and missteps that Washington made in its invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, including a lack of preparation and readiness for what followed.
Among the options discussed by American officials is the formation of a multinational force to maintain order. It could include a mix of European and Arab countries, although no government has explicitly expressed its willingness to participate in such a force.
US President Joe Biden, who in 2021 ended his country’s two-decade military presence in Afghanistan, will most likely not want to get involved in direct military action in a new foreign conflict as he seeks re-election as president in 2024.
Some political analysts have also floated the idea of deploying a UN-backed force in the Gaza Strip, either in the form of an official UN peacekeeping force such as the one on the Israel-Lebanon border or a multinational force with UN approval.
But diplomats say that such a move is not up for discussion at the United Nations, and that a move would require the approval of the 15 member states of the UN Security Council.
Such tasks usually face huge obstacles. In October 2022, Haiti requested international assistance to fight violent gangs. A year later, the UN Security Council approved the formation of a foreign security mission after delays due to facing major difficulties in finding a country prepared to lead that mission. Kenya applied for this, but Haiti is still waiting for the mission to actually arrive.
To complicate matters further, Israel will likely oppose any security role for the United Nations, especially after Israeli officials criticized UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres for saying that the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel “did not come out of nowhere.”
Israel expects the war to be prolonged but says it is not interested in reoccupying the Gaza Strip.
* Regional umbrella
Experts from outside the region, some of whom are known to be familiar with the thinking of American policymakers, are assessing what the situation in the Gaza Strip might be like after the war.
Dennis Ross, a former Middle East negotiator and White House advisor, says that if Hamas is able to be stripped of its “strong authority” and the Gaza Strip is disarmed, “this may open the way for the formation of an interim administration with a technocratic government led by Palestinians working under some kind of international or international umbrella.” Regional or both.
He said that the details will require a complex discussion led by the United States with the Palestinian Authority and other major parties concerned and who have interests in achieving stability in the Middle East.
But for this to work, Ross says, Israel must limit the time frame for its military presence in the Gaza Strip, otherwise any governing entity will lack legitimacy in the eyes of the Strip’s residents.
An article written by Ross and two of his colleagues at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy suggested that once Israel withdraws, the security role in the Gaza Strip could be assumed by “a consortium of five Arab countries that have reached peace agreements with Israel: Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco.”
But there is some skepticism about the possibility of reaching such an arrangement. “Arab countries will not send soldiers on the ground to kill Palestinians,” said Miller, who now works at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
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