2024-10-09 17:49:00
Will the electricity bill for families change in a few weeks? Up or down? It depends on several factors.
It is a topic that is the subject of a barrage of different announcements from which it is difficult to extricate oneself: what will be the evolution of the electricity price in the next few weeks? The main projections are optimistic regarding household finances as the promise was made that the bill would soon decrease. However, this would not concern everyone: “80% of the French” according to Maud Bregeon, government spokeswoman. And the remaining 20%? Will they see their bill increase?
Regarding the future amounts to be paid to Engie, EDF or even TotalEnergies, several elements must be taken into account: only the cost of electricity and the cost of additional taxes, but also the type of contract that the person has signed. That’s all the difficulty. The different elements mentioned above do not evolve in the same way. One will decrease, the other will increase… And again, the evolution will not be the same on all contracts.
Overall, the emerging trend is as follows: First, in November 2024, some consumers will be subject to a slight increase. Then, in February 2025, the bill is expected to decrease by around 10% for the vast majority of French people. This is due to the decline in electricity production costs. At the same time, however, the government plans to drastically increase taxes. Consequence: there will be a reduction, but it will be lower than what would occur if taxation were maintained at the current level.
7.49pm – How much will this tax increase cost me?
For a 60m2 apartment (consumption of 4800KwH/year), the annual amount of the TICFE will increase from 120 to 230 euros. For a 100 m² house (10,000 KwH/year), the expense will increase from 250 to 480 euros per year. These are the average consumption levels established by Engie depending on the housing types. However, most families are not expected to feel the effects of this tax increase. In fact, the government says that the pure cost of electricity will fall so much at the beginning of the year that, despite the tax increase, the bill will continue to fall.
7.06pm – An electricity tax about to double
The electricity bill is divided into several parts: the pure price of electricity, the costs associated with the electricity grid and its maintenance, as well as a tax collected by the state. This, the TICFE (or CSPE, its other name), no longer represented almost nothing on the total to be paid: it had been lowered to €1/MwH to compensate for the increase in electricity production and transmission costs. Since the latter have now decreased, the State wants to replenish its coffers. Brought to €21/MwH, it should have risen to €32/MwH on February 1, the level before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. But Michel Barnier wants to go much further. Second The Echoesthe Prime Minister wants to increase the cost of this tax to €40 or €42/MwH in 2025 to obtain additional revenue for the state budget. This new amount could take effect on February 1st.
18:08 – Why do some prices change on November 1st and others on February 1st?
It actually depends on the contracts. If it is a market offer contract, prices and taxes may change at any time, depending on the market.
For contracts with a regulated electricity sales tariff, however, the revision of the cost of electricity is carried out only twice a year: on 1 February and 1 August of each year. This year these French people could also have seen their bill increase on November 1st due to the increase in the TURPE tax (read below).
However, to avoid too many variations, the government has decided to postpone this increase to February 1st so that it is painless for families: since the cost of electricity production could decrease significantly at that time, this slight increase (4.81 %) be absorbed. The count will continue to go down. The move was therefore decided only for “convenience”.
5.47pm – Who will benefit from the drop in the cost of electricity from February?
Concretely, customers who subscribe to the regulated electricity sales tariff will benefit from this reduction, whether they belong to the blue tariff, the Tempo offer or even the peak/off-peak hour system. Furthermore, the French are also worried and have signed up to a market offer indexed to the regulated rate. In total, just over 30 million people are affected.
5.31pm – I read that the price of electricity will decrease in early 2025: what do you think?
It is true. In February the price of electricity will decrease for most French people. This will be due to the drop in energy production costs: electricity will cost less and this will be reflected in the bill. For most, but not all, French people, a decline of around 10% is expected. A little more patience…
16:57 – How much more will it cost the affected families?
To estimate the amount of your future bill, simply take the last payment received and read the line below “Total electricity including taxes”. Titled “including XX euros excluding the tax paid to your distributor for the delivery of electricity” (particularly on Engie invoices), it is the one that will increase by 4.81%. If my calculation mechanics between VAT and VAT are a little complex, overall the amount you pay to the supplier will increase by about 1%. For example, on an invoice of 180 euros which includes 27 euros in delivery, the total will only increase by around… 1 euro.
4.42pm – Who will pay the most from November 1st?
Around 10 million French people are affected by this increase. They are those who have a contract with market or “fixed price” offers. On this last type of contract, only the price of electricity is fixed: not that of taxes and surcharges. Everyone else who has a contract at the regulated retail rate will not be affected from 1 November.
4.35pm – Electricity price increase on November 1st for some French people
From November 1st the price of electricity will increase. Or, more precisely, that of the maintenance costs of the electricity grid. These costs are in fact distributed across the various lines of the invoice: subscription, consumption and transport tariff contribution. These are the sums that suppliers have to pay to management (i.e., mainly, Engie and others at Enedis). However, suppliers do not take this money out of their pockets: they apply it through customer invoices. It is called Tariff for the use of the public electricity network (TURPE). Next month, its amount will increase by 4.81%. Suppliers might not have reported this increase on their invoice. However, Engie announces to Linternaute that “unfortunately we have no choice but to pass on the increase in this TURPE to our customers given the regulatory and financial constraints”. TotalEnergies did not respond to us. But not all French people will be affected.
#pay #Emerging #scenarios