2023-05-14 09:48:37
This Sunday, Türkiye go to the polls and Recep Tayyip Erdogan he could lose power after 21 years leading the country. Between 2002 and 2014 he was prime minister and, since 2014, he has held the presidency. But he finally wins Erdogan or the opponent Kemal Kilicdarogluwho is ahead in the polls, what is certain is that the elections are going to have a great impact on the European Union and in spain. “It’s probably the [elecciones] events of the year at the international level (…) due to the significance of the country from a geopolitical point of view”, explains Judith Arnal, a researcher at the center, in an article on the website of the Elcano Royal Institute.
A distant country, but close at the same time
Türkiye is an actor important for the EU because of the neighborhoodlas business relationshipslas investments and the human exchanges, in addition to acting as a bridge between the Old Continent and the Middle East and Central Asia. In the case of Spain, the relationship is not one of proximity, but it is relevant in other areas. Apart from the EU, Turkey is one of the main Spanish trading partners, behind the US, the UK, Morocco and China. In 2022, bilateral trade between Spain and Türkiye reached 16,000 million euros. “It is not a neighboring country nor does it have territorial or maritime conflicts like Greece or Cyprus. This has allowed Spain to have a more positive and friendly relationship. The tone of relations has always been very good, very correct, regardless of the government that was in Ankara and Madrid”, explains Eduard Soler Lecha, professor of International Relations at the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB) and researcher at the Barcelona Center for International Affairs (CIDOB).
Turkey is also a country in which Spanish companies produce, as they have qualified and cheaper labor than in the EU. Among these, the Mango or Inditex textiles stand out, but they also have a presence in the Anatolian country Indra, Roca, Técnicas Reunidas, Ferrovial or Acciona.
Special chapter deserves the BBVAwhich owns 86% of the capital of Guarantee, the second largest private bank in Türkiye. The CEO of the large Spanish bank, in fact, is a Turkish national: Onur Young. “If the elections have implications in the economic sphere, they will have an impact on one of the main Spanish financial groups,” underlines Soler Lecha.
In the opposite direction, the tender for the renovation of the Camp Nou that the Turkish company has won stands out Limak Holdinga company that bases all its business on public works concessions from the Erdogan government.
Rotating Presidency of the EU
Another of the remarkable aspects in the affectation of the Turkish elections in Spain is circumstantial, since on July 1 he will assume the rotating presidency of the EU. From this position, he will have to manage the post-electoral scenario “in everything that has to do with Turkey-EU relations, either to deepen it or to show concern or to exert political pressure”, points out the UAB professor.
In addition, Spain could be one of the first destinations for the next Turkish president, at least in the EU, since the meeting of the European Political Community, which encompasses 44 countries, prior to the informal European Council of Twenty-seven that will take place on October 6. In the event that Kiliçdaroglu wins, Granada could be the space where the relationship between the Twenty-seven and the new Turkish leadership begins.
Immigration
Türkiye plays a leading role for the EU in terms of migration control. He is one of the so-called ‘gendarmes’ at the external borders of the Union and with whom the Twenty-seven maintain a framework of cooperation essential to give humanitarian support and cover the health and educational expenses of the refugees who live in in the Anatolian country. The agreement, signed in 2016, established in 6,000 million euros financial compensation for Ankara.
A possible third migration crisis in the Aegean, taking into account the worsening situation in Afghanistan o Pakistanwould have a very small impact in Spain, but the debates that would arise on the needs of solidarity between European countries and on the dysfunctionality of the current policies regarding asylum. “If there is a new crisis or there are solutions, these will affect how Spain manages its borders and the degree of solidarity it receives or expects to receive from European countries,” says Soler Lecha.
Ties with the EU
Another possible resonance in Spain of the electoral result would come from a possible Türkiye’s accession to the EUa scenario that for now is impossible.
In the event that the opposition candidate wins, he has promised to work to unfreeze the talks with Brussels. However, recalls the CIDOB researcher, it will be difficult to make much progress in this regard due to the resistance on the part of some European states to incorporate the Anatolian country, which is seen more as a “rival“oh one”hostile actor” than as a “competitor”. “Many things would have to change both in Turkey and in the EU, so there would be no immediate changes, but it is possible to imagine that the process could be restarted in some way, that change the tone, the gesturesand that this places us in a different type of relationship,” he explains.
If Erdogan is reappointed, everything will most likely stay the same: “Competition, hostility on some issues, cooperation on others, and this transactional logic of exchange.” Soler Lecha rules out, in any case, a rupture scenario because the “level of reciprocal dependence is very strong”.
ties with Russia
Finally, the outcome of the elections could have an effect on the development of the ukrainian wargiven the ties between the current Turkish president and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.
“Turkey has facilitated the reaching of agreements such as the one on grain, essential to allow the grain export through the Black Sea and alleviate food security risks for countries in the Middle East and Africa, which has been publicized at the national level by Erdogan as a victory for his diplomacy,” recalls Arnal in his article.
If Erdogan wins, there will be continuity and will maintain the balance between the two parts: good harmony and cooperation with Russia in areas such as energy while continuing to supply weapons to Ukraine. Not surprisingly, Putin is clearly betting on a victory for Erdogan in these elections, whom the Russian president has cataloged on many occasions as a “friend”. In the event that the opponent Kiliçdaroglu wins, the politician has already announced that he intends to make a 180 degree turn in foreign policy to align himself with the EU and NATO; yes, without abandoning cooperation with Moscow. “I have my doubts that Turkey can afford a break with Russia. The level of dependency in terms of energy, food, as well as exposure to trade or tourism with Russia is very high,” concludes Soler Lecha.
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