► What does the agreement signed in July consist of?
The grain agreement signed in July under the aegis of Turkey and the UN has allowed the export of more than 9 million tonnes of grain stuck in Ukrainian ports since the start of the conflict in February. A coordination center based in Turkey, including representatives from Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations, supervised the movement of ships and the inspection of cargoes. The last six ships left Ukrainian ports on Friday, October 29, carrying more than 220,000 tonnes of grain bound for Israel, Belgium, China, Italy and Egypt.
► Why did Moscow suspend its application?
Moscow justified this suspension by the drone attack which targeted, on Saturday, October 29, the Russian Black Sea fleet stationed in the bay of Sevastopol, in annexed Crimea. Very critical of the agreement, Russia was looking for a pretext to denounce it. Since September, Vladimir Poutine has, himself, multiplied the reproaches. According to him, Ukrainian exports went to EU countries applying sanctions against Russia instead of poor countries, an allegation denied by the coordination center. In early October, the head of the Kremlin even hinted that Ukrainian special forces could have used the grain corridor to attack the bridge connecting Russia to the Crimean peninsula.
In addition, Russian grain and fertilizer exports continued to suffer. Despite the guarantees provided by the agreement, the ports, insurance companies, banks and other companies concerned fear incurring sanctions if they work with Russian exporters.
► What is Putin’s objective?
“Putin needs leverage as things go wrong for him on the battlefield in Ukraine, analyzes Alexander Gabuev, researcher at the Carnegie Foundation. The threat of a global food crisis must be put back into the Russian toolbox of coercion and blackmail. » According to him, Russia’s bullying campaign is aimed at pressuring Western countries to limit their military support for Ukraine or force kyiv to agree to a ceasefire that would give Moscow time to rebuild. his strengths. Both sides have been preparing for several weeks for a battle for the city of Kherson where the occupation authorities have evacuated tens of thousands of civilians.
After the Russian attacks on the electricity infrastructure, the halt in grain exports increases the pressure a little more on Ukraine, threatened to become a “failed state”. kyiv will need 3 to 5 billion euros per month in financial aid next year to continue operating. « Putin wants to make support for Ukraine unbearable for Western countries,” says Dionis Cenusa, associate researcher at the Eastern Europe Studies Center in Vilnius (Lithuania).