2024-10-02 12:23:38
American historian Amy Knight has specialized in Russia and the former Soviet Union for decades. The Russian opposition server Meduza spoke with her about, among other things, how the attitude of the Russian elites has changed since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Putin trained the head of civilian intelligence at a Security Council meeting two days before the invasion of Ukraine. | Video: Twitter / Christo Grozev
One of Amy Knight’s latest works deals with the culture of political assassinations under Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to the historian, current security forces resort to them more often than their Soviet predecessors. “They are more aggressive, more daring. After all, the KGB was more careful in covering its tracks and did not resort to such methods as often,” Knight claims in an interview for Medusa.
According to her, it is already difficult to get young officers to believe in the “special Russian values” that Putin talks about. These people have real information about what is happening in the country and see the hypocrisy of the system from the inside. “Current Russian security forces are extremely cynical. They are focused on money and positions, they know how to survive. If they perceive the West as an enemy, then not as an ideological opponent, but as someone who can disrupt their status quo, disrupt their corruption and intervene in their position,” thinks Knight.
The historian also commented on the reaction of the elites after Putin decided on a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. “Do you remember the video from the extraordinary meeting of the Security Council [21. února 2022]when Putin gathered all the members of his government to stand up and support his decision about the need to recognize the self-proclaimed republics in Donbass? We know that several people – including (then Putin’s right-hand man) Nikolai Patrushev – were not enthusiastic. In my opinion, key members of the elite are disaffected and would like the war to end. It’s perfectly natural: officials are cut off from the West, oligarchs can’t take their yachts to the Mediterranean, their children can no longer live in Swiss guesthouses. Even a grandson [šéfa Rosgvardie Viktora] Zolotova went to public school in London,” Knight calculates.
The longer the aggression continues, the more disaffection builds up among the elites and it is hard to predict what they will decide to do. “If the fighting drags on and the Russian armed forces don’t make any sudden gains or force the Ukrainians out of the Kursk region, then maybe there will be people who will form a coalition and reach out to Putin and demand that he make concessions and end the war. Maybe even challenge him to resign,” estimates the American historian who worked for many years at the US Library of Congress.
The elites also include the ministers who directly manage the forces that protect Putin: the Rosgvard, the army and the Federal Security Service (FSB). “So far, Putin seems unchallenged, but he has to rely on ‘forces.’ those who begin to threaten the regime. This is the eternal problem of dictators: if you want to control people, you have to give those around you the opportunity to control them,” says Knight, according to whom Putin is constantly changing the rules according to which the elites around him get points.
Western sanctions may not be working as planned, but they have not been unnecessary. “Look at Oleg Deripaska [jeden z nejmocnějších oligarchů]who openly expresses his displeasure! All they talk about is sanctions. In a recent interview with the Japanese newspaper Nikkei Asia, he once again called the war crazy. In addition, he posted on his Telegram an article from the American edition of Foreign Affairs about Putin and whether the Russians will ever be able to get rid of him. It is quite extraordinary. Why does Deripaska suddenly allow himself something like this? Would he feel growing disapproval and dissatisfaction?” asks the American historian.
And how do you think the Russian elites feel now? “If I were all these people, I would be depressed. Most of them have children, grandchildren – and they are all literally hostages now. In a shell of what used to be Russia. But they have nowhere to go. All of them, deep down, are waiting for mass discontent ordinary Russians and they are afraid of her. And the longer this war lasts, the more dangerous the situation is for Putin,” says Knight.
The American historian believes that the Russian elites would oppose it if the ruler decided to attack NATO countries. “I don’t think that he would commit to such recklessness. We often talk about the Kremlin’s red lines – I think they exist. And they pass through here as well,” concludes Knight in an interview for the Russian opposition website Meduza.
Surprising and impressive. An unexpected storm is unfolding in the immediate vicinity of Putin. (Full article with video here)
Who is Nikolai Patrushev? He hates the West and should have had Agent Litvinenko poisoned. | Video: Reuters