The subvariants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 of omicron will be the majority in the contagions of Covid-19 at the end of November or the beginning of December, according to what the Minister of Health, Carolina Darias, advanced a few days ago.
The minister pointed out that these variants «are growing at a rapid rate in several European countries. In Spain, they account for 2.7 percent of cases at the moment, according to the latest report from the Center for the Coordination of Health Alerts and Emergencies (CCAES), published this Monday. For now, BA.4 and BA.5 remain dominant.
“It is estimated that they may be the dominant ones from the end of this month or early december», Darias stated in line with the report of the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC) on October 20.
In its document, the ECDC designated the BQ.1 lineage and its sublineages, including BQ.1.1, as variants of interest. Based on their current prevalence and rate of growth, the European body estimated that these lineages will exceed 50 percent in Europe in late November or early December.
The mutations that define these lineages have been related to the degree of evasion of the immune response and at the moment there are no indications that any of these lineages is related to a greater severity of cases, according to the ECDC. «They could have a bigger exhaust», Darias pointed out in the same line.
Regarding the epidemiology of the virus, the minister warned that, despite “favorable data” in recent months, autumn is entering, which “is characterized by the greatest circulation of viruses and respiratory infections.” “Which is why we can’t let our guard down,” she insisted.
Basel University researcher Cornelius Roemer already warned in early October on Twitter that BQ1.1 «will drive a wave of variants in Europe and North America before the end of November”, given the “fairly high” probability that it will be up to 10% more contagious.
With 11 days more data, it is becoming quite clear that BQ.1.1 will drive a variant wave in Europe and North America before the end of November
Its relative share has kept more than doubling every week
It has taken just 19 days to grow 8-fold from 5 sequences to 200 sequences 1/ https://t.co/pPIi0wbNuR pic.twitter.com/NUpzCplcZB— Cornelius Roemer (@CorneliusRoemer) October 2, 2022
Given these forecasts, on social networks, they have already baptized this variant as «Hellhound» in allusion to the dog of the god Hades in Greek mythology, who was in charge of guarding the gates of the underworld.