2023-05-21 14:33:23
The military point 461 | A report by the British institute Rusi explains how the Russian army has corrected the mistakes of the first few months and what the obstacles are for Ukraine (which loses 10,000 drones a month)
The progress of the conflict should be considered as a whole, not on the outcome of a battle. It applies to everyone. It is then interesting to dwell on a new analysis by the British institute Rusi dedicated to Putin’s army. We report on the «notebook» some points.
The Russians, despite many inefficiencies, have shown great adaptation. Significant errors have been corrected. And the war machine, despite the many negative anecdotes, remains powerful. The changes – acknowledge the experts Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds – are always occurred in reaction to difficult situations, i.e. measures of the «after». A confirmation of the inability to anticipate moves. However, the General Staff sought solutions and often managed to find them.
Surprised by the shooting of the Himars, with dozens of depots and hubs destroyed, the generals moved supplies further back, scattered platoons. Always formidable, with a great impact, the volume of fire of the Russian cannons: a clear and well-known superiority. The question is how long it can go on without resorting to outside help. The tanks were rarely used to open breaches, the invaders preferred to use them as mobile artillery. That’s why the deployment of older T62s and T55s shouldn’t be overlooked: they use them for close support and the ukrainians still have to use anti-tank to take them out. It is said that they are not always available and sufficient. Furthermore, the reactive armor applied to the “hulls” have proved to be quite resistant, as well as tactics and countermeasures have increased the “survival” qualities.
After the disasters of the first months, the Battalions were divided into smaller units, with sub-teams each with a specific mission. They sent expendable soldiers ahead, then replaced in case of conquest of a position by specialists capable of directing the shot with precision and to engage the opponent. A maneuver repeated 4-5 times with recourse – when they had them – to sappers to fortify the lines or to simple shovel/pickaxe work. Extended the mined areas, in continuous development the “bastions” with dragon’s teeth, ditches, bunkers. However, it is true that the gains on the territory were minimal and the Army especially took care to contain on a front about 1,200 kilometers long. The lack of quality and training remain, same judgment for morale.
The occupying force has put in place powerful electronic countermeasures. For Russia Ukrainians lose an average of 10,000 drones a month, voids they try to fill with continuous supplies. Serious Communications Issues: The report states that the Russians managed to “decrypt” the opposing radio equipment taking advantage in some moments. Extensive use of reconnaissance drones by sector managers to lead assaults, raids, firing of batteries.
The report is a “memo” to invite not to underestimate Russia, warns of obstacles ahead of Ukraine. Kiev must enter the defences, consolidate gains, counter counter-attacks and strike in the rear. Phases that depend on the training of these months, on the means, on the firepower (not only of artillery but also of minor “pieces”), from execution. Challenges that require a long preparation and always contain unknowns. Yesterday the US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said that everything that was needed was given to Zelensky. Not everyone is convinced.
May 21, 2023 (change May 21, 2023 | 16:48)
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