2024-09-06 17:35:02
Are there actually stocks in Germany that benefit from a strong performance by the AfD? After such a surprising election result in Saxony and Thuringia, which also attracted attention abroad, you can look at the stock market. The German stock index DAX initially fell slightly on Monday morning after the election, but fell by 2.5 percent during the week.
Marketers believe there is a bit of a post-election bear market in this: German state election results generally have little impact on share prices, reports fund manager Christian Kahler. And if that is the case, the law just calls the stock exchanges “short legs”. The fact that the election results in the federal left German stock market is quite cold probably also has something to do with the fact that they were basically expected, says Michael Heise, the chief investor at HQ Trust.
From his point of view, it is surprising that the German leading index has lost less significantly in the last week than the indices of many other stock exchanges in the world: “In view of the heated debate about the results of the elections for future state and federal politics This may be surprising – it shows once again that political arguments on stock exchanges are viewed with more equality.”
Gold is always associated with rights
Gold could perhaps be among the suspects that could benefit from a strong performance by right-wing parties. Finally, there are various representatives of the rightful populist positions who want to sing the praises of the precious metal. And the AfD itself is at least temporarily involved in the precious metals business (note: “AfD is worth its weight in gold”).
The price of gold is currently trading at more than $2,500 per troy ounce (31.1 grams), not far from its historic high. However, no price increase was observed immediately after the state elections, or gold experts believe that the state elections will have a significant impact on the price of the precious metal sold in the world market.
“This has no effect on German demand for gold or on the price of gold,” said experts at the Heraeus precious metals group in Hanau. And Reinhard Pfingsten, chief investment economist at Apobank, said: “Indeed, the purchase of gold by central banks alone is much more important in terms of volume than what private investors will buy due to concerns or political costs .”
Experiences from France and America
After all, there is experience from France that at least the strong uncertainty that the right can bring with it can scare the financial markets. And in the United States it has been noted time and again that Donald Trump’s electoral chances as determined by surveys – who certainly cannot be compared with the AfD – can benefit some stocks and tend to harm others.
Analysts at Bank J. Safra Sarasin in Switzerland discussed at least once on Friday which markets could benefit from the AfD. “If you look at the AfD’s policy proposals, you notice that they are against something more than something,” the group reported: “So it is difficult to name specific sectors that they will promote directly.”
However, they will likely reduce subsidies for renewable energies, so that wind energy operators, for example, may suffer. The position of the AfD with regard to Ukraine and Russia is clear: “Therefore we would think that weapons companies like Rheinmetall would be more to suffer.”
The bank believes that it is possible that stocks such as Russia’s Gazprom could benefit in return, and perhaps one or two energy companies in Germany such as BASF. However, it has been stressed in financial circles that being the party’s representative in two state legislatures will not affect any of the shares.
#AfD #shares