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A novel computational model is shedding light on the dynamics of dissent and repression, revealing how authoritarian governments can gradually escalate control and why a strategy of overwhelming force isn’t always the first choice. Researchers have developed an agent-based simulation that explores the complex interplay between individuals’ willingness to speak out and the calculated responses of authorities seeking to minimize opposition at the lowest possible cost.
The research stems from observations of differing approaches to managing dissent. While the US has largely adopted a hands-off approach, allowing private companies to regulate expression, other nations employ more direct methods. This disparity prompted the investigation into the underlying mechanisms at play.
The calculus of Dissent
The model doesn’t rely on conventional statistical analysis or direct surveys. Instead, it operates on a foundation of assumed human behaviors, allowing researchers to explore a range of parameters. “It’s not some kind of learning theory thing,” one researcher explained. “We didn’t go out and ask 1000 people,’What woudl you do if faced with this situation?’ and then build that data into the model. Our model allows us to embed some assumptions about how we think people behave broadly, but then lets us explore parameters. What happens if your more or less bold? What happens if punishments are more or less severe? An authority is more or less tolerant?”
The simulation models how individuals weigh the desire to express dissent against the potential consequences of punishment.concurrently, it tracks how an authority adjusts its surveillance and policies to suppress opposition efficiently.
The path to Repression
According to the model, the most extreme outcome is a government employing a draconian punishment strategy, effectively silencing all dissent. “Everyone’s best strategic choice is just to say nothing at this point,” the researcher stated. This raises a critical question: “So why doesn’t every authoritarian government on the planet just do this?”
The answer, the model suggests, lies in the dynamics of escalation. Authoritarian regimes may begin with more moderate approaches, gradually increasing severity over time. “Maybe the only way they’re allowed to get to that extreme endpoint is through small changes over time.”
Echoes of the Hundred Flowers Campaign
The model’s findings resonate with historical events, particularly China’s Hundred Flowers Campaign in the 1950s. Chairman Mao Zedong initially encouraged public criticism of his government, only to launch a brutal crackdown when dissent grew too widespread. The simulation demonstrates how such a strategy can lead to a gradual increase in self-censorship, ultimately resulting in near-total compliance.
The model showed that in such a case, dissenters’ self-censorship gradually increased, culminating in near-total compliance over time. “
The Power of Boldness
However, the simulation also reveals a crucial counterforce. “the opposite of the Hundred Flowers is if the population is sufficiently bold, this strategy doesn’t work,” the researcher noted. When citizens consistently defy repression,the authoritarian regime struggles to achieve complete control. “the authoritarian can’t find the pathway to become fully draconian. People just stubbornly keep dissenting. So every time it tries to ramp up severity, it’s on the hook for it every time because people are still out there, they’re still dissenting. They’re saying, ‘Catch us if you dare.'”
This suggests that sustained, brave dissent can act as a powerful check on authoritarian tendencies, preventing them from reaching their most extreme and repressive forms.The model underscores the importance of individual agency and collective resistance in the face of oppression.
