Texans defensive end Will Anderson has claimed the betting favorite spot for NFL Defensive Player of the Year at +320 odds, surging past Rams defensive end Myles Garrett after Garrett suffered a knee injury in Week 1.
The race for the NFL’s most prestigious defensive honor has experienced a seismic early shift. What began as a season with a runaway betting favorite has quickly transformed into an open field following unexpected health setbacks and opening-week performances across the league.
Myles Garrett’s Early Injury Opens the Field
Rams defensive end Myles Garrett entered the 2026 NFL season as the clear favorite to win the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year award after a record-breaking 23-sack campaign that cemented his status among the league’s elite pass rushers. That status evaporated in an instant.
Garrett did nothing in Week 1, and is now out through at least Week 5 with a knee injury, and his odds to win Defensive Player of the Year have dropped to +2500. That absence cleared the path for a new front-runner to emerge at the top of the sportsbooks.
Defensive Player of the Year isn’t the sexiest NFL award, but it’s perennially one of the favorite awards to bet on. Just like many team sports, defense doesn’t garner as much attention. That often leads voters to the actual best player from a shorter list of name-brand options, without the sort of surprises and narratives that tend to make other awards more goofy and unpredictable.
Myles Garrett is the NFL’s reigning DPOY after a record-breaking season with 23 sacks, though he was a bit of an outlier for this award in some ways despite the gaudy stats. Defense is about respect. Once the league’s elite defenders earn the respect of the voting base, they tend to keep getting votes year after year. There are only 50 voters, but Aaron Donald received at least one first-place vote in seven straight seasons. Donald and J.J. Watt won almost half of the last 14 DPOYs. Only nine players have multiple DPOY awards in NFL history, and it’s a Hall of Fame list – Garrett, Donald (x3), Watt (x3), Ray Lewis, Reggie White, Bruce Smith, Lawrence Taylor (x3), Mike Singletary and Joe Greene.
Will Anderson Claims the Top Spot
Stepping into the vacuum is Texans defensive end Will Anderson, who now is favored to win the award, with +320 odds. The designation arrives even though Anderson and the Texans’ defense did not have a great game in Sunday’s 36-31 loss to the Bills, but Anderson is one of the best pass rushers in the league, and Defensive Player of the Year usually goes to a great pass rusher.
Modern winners get after the quarterback and rack up sacks. Eight of the last 10 DPOY winners were pass rushers. In 2023, the top four vote getters recorded 14, 19, 14 and 14.5 sacks, and all four finished top-8 in the NFL in sacks. The two exceptions were Patrick Surtain and Stephon Gilmore, both winning in a year without a great pass-rushing option as shutdown corners and the best player on one of the league’s true elite defenses. The other eight winners got after the quarterback to the tune of 16.9 sacks on average their winning seasons, and all eight had at least 11 sacks, with half of them having over 17—more than one per game.
Five of the last 10 winners were between 25-to-27 years old, with an average age just under 27 over the past decade, and every single one of them was between 24 and 30 years old. Actually, Myles Garrett is the first DPOY with a “3” at the start of his age since Charles Woodson all the way back in 2009 – and Garrett actually didn’t turn 30 until the last couple weeks of the season.
Contenders Chasing the Front-Runner
Behind Anderson, several marquee defenders are positioning themselves to capitalize on the wide-open race. Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, who had two sacks in a Week 1 win over the Saints, is second in Defensive Player of the Year odds at +500.
He’s followed by Steelers outside linebacker T.J. Watt (+650), who had a tremendous pick-six in Sunday’s win over the Falcons, and Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (+900), who had 1.5 sacks in a Week 1 win over the Dolphins.
Historical Trends Favor Production Over Team Success
Market analysts examining the award’s history point out that eight of the last 12 winners finished in the top six in DPOY voting previously—and three of the other four had made First Team All-Pro before. There are approximately 800 defenders rostered in the NFL, and only 6-to-8 of them are really in the mix most years.
Instead of rewarding units, voters consistently gravitate toward individual game-wreckers who accumulate massive pressure and sack totals. With Garrett sidelined for multiple weeks, the race is entirely up for grabs among the league’s premier disruptive talents.