2024-07-30 15:16:32
Allan Lichtman works as a historian, but he’s even better at looking into the future. In the 1980s, he developed a method that allowed him to correctly predict the results of the US presidential election starting in 1984. There are now three months left until the elections in the USA, and Lichtman believes that even after the resignation of the incumbent President Joe Biden, the Democrats led by Kamala Harris will win them.
The American professor gave an interview to Aktuálně.cz in June, in which he stated that a lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose the November election. But since then, events in the US took a dramatic turn when Biden withdrew from the race for the presidency more than a week ago.
Lichtman’s system, called the 13 Keys to the White House, are simple questions examining the political environment before an election to which an individual answers either yes or no. As the historian and sociologist explained, if six or more keys are false, the White House switches sides. If fewer than six are false, stability and the incumbent win.
Lichtman now, even after Biden’s resignation, still sees the Democratic Party as the winner of the upcoming election. Despite the fact that she lost one of the keys to being elected, namely that the incumbent president is the candidate of the ruling party. To lose, the Democrats would have to lose three more keys, according to Lichtman.
Public opinion polls from the last few days gave Republican Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris about equal chances of victory. She is almost certain to be nominated as a presidential candidate, as she was supported by a sufficient number of delegates. Even Biden himself expressed his support for her when he decided to withdraw from the election. Officially, the party will start selecting a candidate only this Thursday, it should be clear by August 7.
“If Harris does not become a candidate, the ruling party may lose another key. But if the Democrats hold their noses together, I think we don’t have to fear that Trump will return to the White House in November,” says Lichtman for Aktuálně.cz.
Over the past week, Harris raised $200 million (4.67 billion crowns) for her campaign and gained 170,000 new volunteers. “She also seems to have brought new energy and joy to the Democratic Party. She dispels the main argument of the Republicans against Joe Biden, that he is too old and decrepit. She is obviously young, very bright and capable,” the American professor thinks.
13 Keys to the White House
1. After the midterm elections, the governing party has more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. There is no serious fight for the nomination of the ruling party in the primaries.
3. The candidate of the ruling party is the incumbent president.
4. No major third-party representative or independent candidate is seeking the White House.
5. The economy is not in recession at the time of the election campaign.
6. Real economic growth per capita during the election period is the same or higher than during the previous two election periods.
7. The current government is making significant changes in national politics.
8. There is no long-term social unrest during the term of office.
9. The ruling administration is not marred by any major scandal.
10. The ruling administration has not failed significantly in foreign or military affairs.
11. The ruling administration has achieved significant success in foreign or military affairs.
12. The candidate of the ruling party is charismatic or a national hero.
13. The opponent of the ruling administration’s candidate is neither charismatic nor a national hero.
He was not surprised by Biden’s resignation. The decision not to defend the mandate was preceded by several weeks of speculation about the president’s health, which was sparked by his performance in a televised debate with Trump in late June.
“Biden faced enormous pressure that was difficult to resist, especially when the Democrats put on an incredible show to bring down their incumbent president. But it didn’t hurt the party as much as one might expect. A lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.” Lichtman thinks.
He will announce the final forecast at the end of August. But he repeats that he is already almost certain that Harris will win. He developed his method in 1981 and successfully tested it in all previous US presidential elections from Abraham Lincoln’s victory in 1860 to Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980.
Until the end of next month, he keeps a question mark on three keys. Firstly, that there will be no serious fight for the nomination of the ruling party in the primaries. According to him, the situation could change further if a third party entered the fight for the White House. He mentions the name of Robert Kennedy, the nephew of ex-president John F. Kennedy.
“This independent contender is stronger in the polls than any third-party candidate in decades, garnering the support of roughly 10 percent of registered voters in every state up for grabs,” he notes.
Since 1973, he has been teaching at the American University in Washington. In 1981, he created a famous model for predicting presidential elections called Keys to the White House. He collaborated with the Russian mathematician and seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok on its development. Thanks to this, he managed to correctly predict how almost all presidential elections would turn out.
In an extremely close vote in 2000, he correctly guessed that Democratic candidate Al Gore would win the most electoral votes. After their recalculation and the intervention of the US Supreme Court, the Republican George Bush Jr. finally won the majority in the electoral college, and thus became the president of the USA.
Photo: wikimedia commons / free work
And he points to another factor that could still change his prediction. “This is the key to success and failure in foreign policy, both of which are uncertain given the two wars raging in the Middle East and Ukraine,” he concludes.
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