On September 11, I wrote to you that “Putin is a wounded animal, and as such he is more dangerous.” After a September of Russian defeats, Putin announced a general mobilization of reservists in Russia, and some estimate that around a million soldiers will be recruited. These are unprofessional new soldiers, but Putin is in a panic, and he needs cannon fodder. He fires at Ukrainian humanitarian aid convoys, because he has trouble hitting military targets. Will it escalate to the use of nuclear weapons?
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At the end of the Six Day War, Yitzhak Rabin, who was the chief of staff of the war, said that every war is different from its past, and we must not be generals who tell the stories of the war, and who do not prepare for the next war. After 6 years, in the Yom Kippur War, we found out how right he was. The generals of Russia also prepared to World War II, when Ukraine brought advanced Western warfare.
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On the first day of the start of the war, it seemed that Russia would conquer all of Ukraine in a few days. But after 7 months, the trend reversed, and in September alone, the Ukrainian army liberated about 6,000 square kilometers. You have to remember that this is a drop in the ocean. Nevertheless, Russia conquered about 90,000 square kilometers from Ukraine, which is an area equal to 4 times the State of Israel. But the trend has reversed. In a desperate move, Putin annexed all the provinces in which he is, even though he did not fully conquer them, and even though he is suffering military blows there. So will the annexation hold, or will it be released back to Ukraine?
At the moment of the announcement of the annexation, an event map is placed. We don’t have a very precise time, but we know it was on September 30 around three in the afternoon Moscow time. We will sadly discover that this time suggests that annexation is here to stay. Not easily released, at least not significant parts of it. Putin intends to protect the occupied territories at any cost. But the price will be very high.
Preparations in Moscow for the announcement of the annexation of the occupied territories in Ukraine to Russia (Photo: Reuters)His soldiers will be cannon fodder, and Russia will grow resentful of him. He will indeed manage to hold the territory, but what benefit will he get from that? The population there is not loyal to him, and the world imposes sanctions on him. Control over the territory is complicated and difficult, and resentment within Russia is growing. Profits from control are low, compared to other high prices. It’s a bit like “the operation was successful, but the patient died”. Putin does not understand what the right goals are for Russia at all. It expands its territory, but complicates it with goals that harm its power.
We are in the days when many make mistakes. You can feel it personally. The thought is vague, the imagination works, and there is little logic. In everyday life it is forgetting the meeting, the phone or the pot on the fire, etc. It’s a lack of understanding between people and reality. It’s plans or schedules that go wrong, and just movies in your head. But when you’re the president of Russia, the lack of seeing reality and understanding the desired goals, leads to a collapse in the state’s power, and ultimately, in the power of Putin himself.
Vladimir Putin announces the annexation of the occupied territories in Ukraine (Photo: Reuters)As a wounded animal, Putin is ready for extreme measures. Desperate times call for desperate measures. But Putin probably won’t use nuclear weapons. Apparently this is only a threat, but this should not reassure us completely. The reason is that he will greatly intensify his other measures. The threat is intended to legitimize other cruel and unacceptable measures, and to create fear in the West to respond to them. The wounded beast Putin has already blown up gas pipelines to Europe. He has other plans.
Russia’s war is not only in Ukraine, it is in NATO and the entire West. The West does not intend to fold, so we will see a step up. We should not exaggerate the interpretation and talk about a third world war. To you that Putin will put pressure on Europe in any form. Among other things, by further reducing the flow of its gas to Europe, and perhaps to the point of stopping it.” Europe should prepare for the worst scenario, and expect a cold winter. As in the series “Game of Thrones”, everyone must prepare because Winter is Coming. And Putin is already preparing the “walking dead” he is recruiting as cannon fodder. Implying to Europe that it should not expand the war, because he is a bit crazy. In the end it will push Europe to a compromise, but not immediately.
Game of Thrones (Photo: yes)The good news is that you don’t have to think in extreme terms of nuclear weapons, and that at the end of the process Putin loses his power, and maybe even his rule. But on the way it will get worse before it gets better. Europe is expected to be affected, and especially you should pay attention to the time around November 8 when a lunar eclipse is expected. For Germany this is a bad sign, and only after severe blows, Europe will also be more willing to compromise, and will want the fighting to end. But another vision for the time being.
And what about our lives? What winter is expected for us personally? And what year will it be? You are invited to read your personal forecast for the Hebrew New Year on Ami Gutman’s website:
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