The rumor has been rising for several days, fueled mainly by Western and Ukrainian sources. Faced with the weak advance of Russian troops in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is about to decree general mobilization on May 9, the date of the annual military parade in Moscow celebrating the victory over Nazi Germany. In the aftermath, the president could officially declare war on kyiv, the fighting being qualified until now as a “special military operation” by the Russian government.
“It’s not true, it’s nonsense”, ended up denying, on May 4, the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, quoted by Ria Novosti, the official Russian agency. He also clarified that there was no chance that Russia would officially declare war on Ukraine on May 9. The Defense Committee in the Russian Parliament also denied this information. Its vice-president (and former soldier) Yuri Chvytkine underlined that“there were no reasons for a general mobilization at the moment”.
“According to him, the purpose of these rumors is to sow panic among the population”, writes the government daily Rossiïskaïa Gazeta. Another committee official, Colonel Andrei Krassov, estimated that “the scenario of this rumor was written on the other side of the ocean”. It’s a “provocation by dark forces who take advantage of the slightest opportunity to smear Russia and sow discord”, he continued, quoted by the same daily.
A possible scenario
The Russian opposition media Jellyfish, established in Latvia, wanted to trace the origin of this rumor. Ben Wallace, British Defense Secretary, seems to have been the first to mention this possibility, on April 28 on the airwaves of LBC. And “possible scenario”, said a spokesman for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense two days later.
Le 1is May, the much publicized adviser to the Ukrainian presidency Oleksiy Arestovych affirmed that a general mobilization “would be the beginning of the end for Putin’s regime”. “Russia is preparing for it”, confirmed the next day the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyrylo Boudanov. Finally, on May 3, based on the declarations of several senior American officials, the channel CNN declared that “Russian President Vladimir Putin could officially declare war on Ukraine as early as May 9, which would allow Russian reserve forces to be fully mobilized in an attempt to conquer eastern and southern Ukraine”.
Several Western military experts have also abounded in this direction. They explain that a declaration of war in good and due form would make it possible to use all the striking power of the Russian army and to declare general mobilization. It would then be “total war” against Ukraine, but also against the Atlantic Alliance, a development which would be fantasized by many generals in Russia, dissatisfied with the turn taken by the “special operation”.
Partial mobilization
On the waves of Current Time, a Russian television channel located in Prague, Rouslan Leviev, who heads the independent investigative group Conflict Intelligence Team, explained that there is no indication for the moment that Russia is preparing for a general mobilization. He also does not consider it realistic given the capabilities of the Russian army.
Rouslan Leviev does not, however, rule out a “partial mobilization”. According to him, “reservists from regions bordering Ukraine can be called up, the length of service of those who are to be demobilized in May 2022 can be extended, or those who have recently been demobilized can be reintegrated into the army”.
“If such a partial mobilization occurs, it is quite realistic to find equipment and uniforms for an additional 200,000 men. Then that would seriously change the course of the war. Then it will be possible to start talking about the possibility of Russia taking over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions completely.”