The highest inflation in the US in 40 years is affecting all groups of the American population, and casts a heavy shadow on the Democrats’ chances of retaining control of Congress after the midterm elections, according to the latest Wall Street Journal survey.
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Voters with relatively low incomes are feeling the effects of inflation the most, but the survey shows that the burden of rising prices is also weighing more on affluent households than it did earlier this year. Among those with household incomes between $150,000 and $200,000 a year, 26% said that the price increase creates major financial pressures – almost double the level in March.
Households earning more than $60,000 to about $100,000 a year – a segment of the population that includes the median household income in 2021, about $70,800 – were the segment that saw the most movement in the Journal’s 2022 survey, in terms of The amount of people who reported financial pressures due to inflation. A quarter of people in this income group expressed this level of difficulty in March, before their number increased to 39%, more than a third of people, by last month.
Independent voters, a crucial segment in close elections, are more likely to say that inflation causes great stress in their lives than Democrats or Republicans. That could add electoral pressure to Democrats, who currently control the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Far more Republicans feel pressure than Democrats
Among all registered voters, 36% said the price increase is causing significant financial stress. Only 22% of Democrats reported this level of stress, compared to 46% of Republicans and 49% of independents.
People with the lowest incomes are the most likely to report financial suffering related to inflation, and 54% of those with an annual income of $60,000 or less said rising prices cause them serious problems. This is an increase from 47% of households in this sector, who answered this way in the survey in March.
Those whose income is $60,000 or less are split almost evenly between the two parties when it comes to congressional candidates, for whom they voted or intend to vote. Those who make between $150,000 and $200,000 prefer Democrats over Republicans, by a ratio of 49% to 44%, while those who earn more than $200,000 per year prefer the representatives of the Republican Party over the Democrats by a ratio of 56% to 38 %.
Wayne Maberry, a 63-year-old retired bus driver from Salem, Oregon, said he uses a calculator when he goes shopping, buys chicken instead of beef and avoids driving as much as possible due to gas prices. While he traditionally considers himself a Democrat, Mabry said he recently voted for his state’s Republican gubernatorial candidate, Christine Drazen, because of the rising prices and number of homeless people. “I was actually surprised when I changed my mind,” said Mabry, who lives mostly on a $1,260 disability pension.
An average of the polls in the Oregon governor’s race shows Drazen, the former minority leader of the Oregon House of Representatives, in a statistical tie with Democrat Tina Kotek, the former speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives. If the Republicans win the seat, it will be the first time since 1982.
In mid-October, the last update of the consumer price index was published before the elections. While the overall figure is a slight improvement from September, to 8.2%, the so-called core price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 6.6% from a year earlier – the largest increase since 1982.
About 453 thousand advertisements mentioned inflation
In House and Senate races alone, more than 453,000 airings of broadcast and cable television ads between Jan. 1 and Nov. 4 mentioned inflation, according to data from ad tracking company AdImpact. About three-quarters were ads from Republicans or conservative-leaning groups.
Non-white voters – a growing portion of the electorate that traditionally votes for Democrats – are also more likely to say that inflation causes significant financial stress in their lives than white voters, 40% versus 35%. This number rises to 44% among Latino voters.
It’s possible that the high levels of financial stress among Latino voters are opening up avenues for the Republican Party to the hearts of voters in this segment of the population compared to previous election cycles. Latino voters, according to the survey, prefer Democratic candidates over Republicans by a margin of only 5%.
“People are getting a lot of motivation from inflation and the economy and voters are trusting the Republicans on that right now,” said Democratic pollster John Anzalone, who conducted the poll with Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio.
Anzlon said his party’s candidates don’t get much credit for the positive indicators in the economy because inflation is such a negative experience for many of them in everyday life. “It doesn’t matter to people that unemployment is low, or that the growth rate is positive,” he said. “It all revolves around how they feel about activities they do on a weekly basis.”
Eric Green, a 37-year-old accountant who lives in suburban Salt Lake City and noted that his household income is more than $200,000, said inflation was “part of the decision-making process” regarding the mail-in ballot he had already sent.
As a former Republican who left the party after former President Donald Trump took over it, Green said he voted for independent candidate Evan McMullin in the Utah Senate race. McMullin is facing incumbent Sen. Mike Lee, a Republican, in a race in a state where Republican candidates have traditionally won.
Green, who considers himself an independent voter, said he thinks inflation has been driven by too much federal spending by both parties. “I am not satisfied with any of them,” he said.
As a married father of four, Green said the high inflation was beginning to weigh on even his income level because it had been going on for so long. His family noticed that the prices of diapers, baby food, and vacations had all gone up. “We have less money for non-essential expenses,” he said. “It is more difficult to maintain the same standard of living.”
The Wall Street Journal survey included 1,500 registered voters, who responded via phone or text messages between October 22 and 26. The standard deviation is more or less 2.5% for the entire sample.