Lhe worst is never certain. This maxim, there is no doubt that Elisabeth Borne and her government hope to see it applied to the pension reform, which the tenant of Matignon has still described as« indispensable », Thursday, February 2 on France 2, despite the double opposition she faces, in the street and in the National Assembly. But, in the immediate future, it is to the French economy that this popular adage particularly suits.
Tuesday, January 31, when at least 1.2 million demonstrators were pounding the pavement, two sets of much more favorable news passed happily under the radar. The unexpected resilience of growth, first, with the announcement by INSEE of a 0.1% increase in GDP in the last quarter of 2022, for a total of 2.6% in 2022, almost in line with the executive’s forecast. What remove, for the moment, the prospect of a recession.
The next day, in the Council of Ministers, a deficit in the State budget of nearly 20 billion euros lower than that forecast by Bercy in its last amending budget, allowed Bruno Le Maire to congratulate himself on the ” resilience “ of the tricolor economy. The Minister of the Economy even described as“exceptional” THE “capacities of resistance of our entrepreneurs and our employees”, far from the procrastination of the government and the majority on the best way to respond to tensions.
Obviously, all is not rosy on the planet economy. Inflation continues to climb (+6% in January over twelve months), driven by the rise in energy prices. The surge in food products weighs on consumption. And with the end of the general rebate at the pump, the price of fuel is close to two euros per liter in service stations. 2023 will not be free of difficulties: inflation will remain a subject at least until the summer, growth should slow down sharply and interest rates rise, weakening the situation of public finances, while public debt – whose 2022 level will be announced at the end of March – will exceed the symbolic threshold of 3,000 billion euros.
Tax revenues better than expected
But, so far, the worst has not happened. The reopening of nuclear power plants and the proper management of gas stocks have made it possible to erase fears of power cuts which had panicked the country before the holidays. The dreaded industrial crash, against the backdrop of the American protectionist offensive (with the Inflation Reduction Act), did not take place: manufacturing production fell back “only” by 0.5% in the last quarter of 2022 and the he industry even rebounded by 1.1% in December.
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