The Ibex It is at its maximum in November 2021 and is up 10% so far in 2023, the percentage that many analysts gave it potential for the entire year. The continuity of the rise in the Stock Markets and the fixed income that is leading this start of 2023 will depend this week on important appointments on this and the other side of the Atlantic. As earnings season picks up speed with financial sector accounts on investors’ agendas, central banks refocus market attention,
On Wednesday, at 8:00 p.m. (peninsular time) the Fed will announce the official interest rate for the US economy. In this regard, an increase of 25 basis points is expected, placing interest rates in the range of 4.50%-4.75%. Thus, the Fed funds futures expect the final terminal rate to be reached in March with a rate of around 5.00%.
The following day, the top leaders of the ECB and the Bank of England will meet in a context marked by the upward trend in underlying inflation. Thus, the consensus of analysts expects the ECB to increase its official interest rates by 50 basis points to 3.00%, from which point the next increases will moderate until reaching the maximum rate of 3.30%.
For its part, in the United Kingdom, a rise in the official interest rate of the Bank of England is projected to 4.00% (compared to the current 3.50%) and the maximum rate will be reached in August at 4.40% .
In addition, on the macro agenda on Tuesday, Eurostat will publish the first estimate of the evolution of the GDP of the European monetary area at the end of 2022. In an environment in which in the last quarter of last year general inflation rates moderated and the labor market showed resilience, Eurozone GDP is expected to rebound by 1.7% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, with a foreseeable contraction in production of 0.1% compared to the previous quarter.
And in the US, the unemployment rate for January of the US economy will be known. In this sense, a slight increase of 0.1% in the number of unemployed is projected to 3.6% of the active population (compared to 3.5% in the previous month).
On the business agenda, the Spanish Stock Market will collect the results of the fourth quarter of Spanish banks in the coming days. Thus, and after learning last Thursday some results from Banco Sabadell that have been the best in 15 years, next Wednesday, it will be the turn of the accounts for BBVA. Sharing leadership with the ECB and the Bank of England, Banco Santander will present its results early on Thursday and CaixaBank will do so on Friday.
In the US, the figures of the American technology companies will stand out, with the numbers of Meta Platform. Alphabet, Apple or Amazon, which will be joined by Pfizer, Exxon or General Motors, among others, with special attention in all cases to the 2023 guides. In Europe, we will have the publication of results from Unicredit, Deutsche Bank, Sanofi and Intesa Sanpaolo .