The statistics would be in favor of brevity because in the last two centuries the majority of wars ended within just three or four months. But for Foreign Affairs this falls within the category of long wars
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told al New York Times to believe that the war will end in the coming months. Do you really think so? What does he mean he? Is it possible he is right?
The war will end, says Zelensky, when at least one of two conditions is met. The first when we Ukrainians win. The second, when the Russian Federation wants it, that is, when it will feel weak because it is isolated or without allies, which is another way of saying when they will lose. For the president of Kiev, essentially, the war will end with Putin defeated. Why we happen the recipe of him the same from the first days of the invasion and even more now after the sensational reconquests: more economic sanctions and more international isolation for Putin and more weapons for Ukraine.
Does Zelensky feel that triumph is approaching? Is the defeat of a nuclear superpower like Russia realistic? He heard the Chief of the United States General Staff, Mark A. Milley, on the impossibility of a military solution to the conflict? Is this perhaps Zelensky’s way of preparing public opinion?
There are many who want to believe it. Wishful thinking, the Anglo-Saxons would say. From the demonstrators of November 5 in Rome (Where’s diplomacy? read on a poster) to entrepreneurs choked by energy prices up to workers impoverished by crises and inflation. Even Chinese President Xi Jinping and French Emmanuel Macron say they still believe in a negotiated solution. Fighting and negotiating should be the norm, they remind the Rand Corporation, the American Think Tank. For the moment, however, the most successful attempt at mediation has been that of the Turkish Erdogan
, capable of passing Ukrainian and Russian grain through the network of mines that paralyzes the Black Sea. Stop. Everyone else dismissed before even starting to speak including Elon Musk and his peace plan via Twitter.
The statistics would be in favor of the desire for peace because in the last two centuries the majority of wars ended within just three or four months. In the Ukrainian case we have already entered the ninth month. Christopher Blattman, su Foreign Affairsfroze hopes by arguing that Russian aggression (and Ukrainian resistance) fall into the category of long wars. Unfortunately. Conflicts that have, for example, an ideological root are destined to drag on. In the Ukrainian case, the defense of the Russian world for Putin and the independence-democracy tandem for Zelensky. Even wars in which a leader fears for his power (Putin in case of defeat), those in which the forces in the field are not well identified (Ukrainian determination has amazed everyone and Western weapons continuously change the balance) last a long time at the front) and, finally, those where the contenders cannot trust each other, which is exactly the case in Ukraine. Zelensky is convinced that sooner or later Moscow will try to regain his influence and Putin is equally certain that NATO wants to erode his vital space.
Looking at what happens on the ground, it is difficult to predict an end in a reasonable time. Both sides are gearing up to continue fighting for a long time. kiev trains new soldiers in the West, Moscow (Intelligence sources say al Courier) ready to launch a new recruit or even martial law, however, the 300,000 recruits of the summer have not yet fully entered into action. Optimists point to depleting arsenals and say war will have to stop for lack of ammunition. At the moment Putin’s best weapons are the dark and cold of winter and for this he is bombing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. For months some analysts have been saying that Moscow is running out of missiles and more are arriving on Ukraine every week. Fog of War.
Zelensky trusts in the determination of his people (90% in favor of the continuation of the conflict according to his polls) and in the precision of the western artillery and anti-aircraft so much that after Kiev, Kharkiv and Kherson, he plans to resume the offensive to free other territories. And it doesn’t matter if people are cold and have no electricity. There are also those who believe that peace will come thanks to the collapse of the two internal fronts. A coup in the Kremlin against the tsar or a revolt for economic reasons on the western front that supports Ukraine. Anything could be, but there are no signs that either condition will happen any time soon.
The war still has all the material and ideological energy to continue for a long time. The choice for not obligatory. Both sides can make different choices than the current ones and both Putin and Zelensky could settle for something less than a victory. They will be convinced by the victories on the ground and the depth of the finances available. On the one hand, if the West remains united, it has virtually unlimited economic strength, on the other, Russia would have used just 5% of its GDP to support the war. For democracies convinced of the goodness of the goal, continuing to finance the conflict is not a problem, nor is it for an autocracy rooted in history.
December 1, 2022 (change December 1, 2022 | 18:56)
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