If you’ve spent the last few days grilling on a Mediterranean beach or simmering on the streets of Berlin, London or Rome in the midst of a heat wave, winter temperatures are certainly the least of your worries. But make no mistake, winter is coming, and it promises to be brutal and confrontational. In question, the energy crisis, which is escalating at full speed since Vladimir Putin restricts Russian gas deliveries.
Over the past ten years, several disasters have almost sounded the death knell for the European Union, in particular the debt crisis at the start of the 2010s or the migration crisis of 2015, and the energy shock of winter 2022 could well be the next. The unity and determination of the Old Continent will once again be put to the test.
National rescue plans
Although most European citizens do not yet smell the impending “gastastrophe”, the markets are already sending worrying warning signals. Gas delivery prices for the winter reached 182 euros per megawatt hour [à la mi-juillet, 207 euros au 1er août]almost as much as at the beginning of March, just after the invasion of Ukraine, and seven times more than their long-term level.
The French and German governments are preparing rescue plans for their energy suppliers [EDF et Uniper], in bad shape, and some investors are betting on companies that will end up broke at the end of the year, devastated by rationing. Most European leaders refuse to clearly announce to their fellow citizens the difficulty of the decisions that lie ahead, and even the most experienced traders in the sector, accustomed to wars and coups d’etat, are apparently beginning to worry.
The threat of a serious energy crisis hangs over Europe since Russian tanks crossed the Ukrainian border. Sanctions and Russian blackmail could end up depriving the EU of its main supplier, and gas is the most critical issue. The latter covers a quarter of the energy needs of the Old Continent, and Moscow provides a third of the deliveries, even more in certain countries such as Germany. Unlike oil and coal, which are transferable and sold around the world, gas can only be transported by pipeline or in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which requires infrastructure that takes time to build or convert. years.
No gas embargo possible
Russia is in a strong position in the gas market, and Vladimir Putin knows it all too well. Without pe exports
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