2023-07-03 12:04:06
To say everyone is fed up with him would be an understatement. And if the most cautious will think of slipping sunscreen in their suitcase, not sure that many will put a box of masks in it.
Three years after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, screening barnums in front of pharmacies have disappeared, but is it the same for the virus? On the eve of the big departures, can we allow ourselves to dream of a summer without health restrictions or threats? In short, will this summer finally be the first like before the pandemic?
All indicators green
According Public health France, all indicators are green. The latest data from the health agency thus show the lowest figures, with an incidence rate of 11.8 cases per 100,000 people, a positivity rate of 8.1%, or even a reproduction rate of the virus. at 0.7. By way of comparison – very telling –, a year ago, these same indicators were all on the rise, illustrating the seventh wave that was sweeping through France: the incidence rate was 63 times higher, at 742 cases for 100,000 people, the test positivity rate exceeded 28%, and the virus reproduction rate was 1.45.
“Today, the incidence of Covid-19 is among the lowest we have had since the appearance of the virus, confirms Professor Bruno Lina, virologist at the Hospices Civils de Lyon, member of Covars and director of the National Center for reference of respiratory infection viruses for the south of France. We have incidence rates that are not only low, but also steadily declining. From this point of view, things are better, and we will have the chance to spend a summer without having to think too much about the virus. In this context where it is very hot, the viruses circulate less, we are all immunized by vaccination or by a previous infection, the most fragile normally had their booster dose in the spring. The virus is slowed down by herd immunity and no longer evolves. So we may be entering a period of stability.
The decline has been observed for several months, to the point that on May 5, the World Health Organization (WHO) lifted the maximum alert for the pandemic, believing that it was now sufficiently under control. “It is with great hope that I declare that Covid-19 is no longer a health emergency of international concern,” commented WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. Shortly after, on May 31, Public Health France published its latest weekly epidemiological bulletin, indicating that “due to the favorable evolution of the Covid-19 epidemic”, its publication was now “suspended”.
But still Covid hospitalizations
These figures therefore have reason to be optimistic, but should not lead to a total relaxation. “The relative dissociation between incidence rate, positivity rate and new hospitalizations shows that people test themselves less over time. This is understandable after three years of epidemic, but this implies monitoring the positivity rate well, recalling that the standard meter lies in hospital admissions, ”recalls Covars, the entity which took over from the Scientific Council. .
A year ago, these figures were high, with nearly 4,500 hospitalizations, including 418 critical care admissions, and 225 deaths. If a year later, “the incidence is lower than ever, it is not at 0: there are still hundreds of people hospitalized every day, some of whom are in critical care service, insists Professor Lina. The problem of Covid-19 has slipped towards the most fragile people, the immunocompromised, who find it difficult to develop a stable immune response, and who can still have serious forms. They are the ones we still see in the hospital. And the virus is still killing people.” According to its latest figures, Public Health France lists more than 300 hospitalizations, including 39 in critical care, and 37 deaths.
A situation which continues to arouse the concern of Covars, for whom “it is important that an up-to-date vaccination schedule, the wearing of a mask and the respect of “barrier” gestures are maintained in the care sectors in the presence of the sick, a fortiori in services caring for immunocompromised patients, including in outpatient facilities”.
“We will never go back to the world before Covid” but…
In the general population, “the figures are reassuring, especially since they are in a dynamic of reduction, continues Professor Lina. But we will never go back to the world before Covid! Can we still avoid a summer of 2023 with the Covid sauce of 2021 and 2022? “The emergence of new variants or sub-variants of this virus, known to evolve, could reshuffle the cards and call for much more vigilance, continues the virologist. To date, this is not the case: those observed have been circulating for several months and are all from the Omicron family; they are sub-variants of the XBB branch, the most transmissible, and very similar”.
And that shouldn’t change. “There are no new strains in circulation: as we can see on the latest batches of viruses, the XBB sub-variants represent more than 95% of the sequencing, he explains. And if the surveillance is less precise than it was at the height of the pandemic, France remains one of the countries which sequences the most, so we are not blind, we can follow the evolution of the virus “.
“We cannot say that the Covid-19 no longer exists”
Can we then send our masks flying for good? “No, we cannot say that the Covid-19 no longer exists”, answers Professor Lina. A caution shared by the government: “The virus is still circulating”, recalled the Minister Delegate in charge of Territorial Organization and Health Professions, Agnès Firmin Le Bodo. And by the WHO: the crisis phase of the pandemic “has passed, but not the Covid”, underlined in May Maria Van Kerkhove, in charge of the fight against the pandemic within the organization.
Precaution and solidarity must therefore remain in order: “The coronavirus has taught us to put on the mask in the general population to curb its spread, but also those of all respiratory viruses. So it’s simple: if you’re feverish, coughing, tired and have a headache, if you have signs of Covid or another respiratory virus, wear a mask must be a reflex, insists Professor Lina. We know that wearing a mask, worn properly on the nose – it is the nose that produces the most virus – is effective in protecting others, in this case the most vulnerable. For the others, there will be cases of infection this summer, but there is a good chance that everything will go quite well. This summer of 2023 will therefore be the one that comes closest to the pre-Covid summers ”.
#summer #pandemic