2023-08-16 17:42:58
The campaign for the 2024 US presidential election promises to be as historic as it is explosive. Former President Donald Trump, the current favorite in the Republican primary race, was indicted for the fourth time on Monday, August 14, for allegedly unlawful attempts to reverse the result of the 2020 presidential election in the state of Georgia.
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Prior to this, the billionaire had been indicted federally for his alleged illegal maneuvers in the 2020 election, but also previously for his alleged negligence in handling confidential documents, as well as buying the silence of a porn actress. Unpublished charges for a former president, who asks multiple questions and worries lawyers and historians, ahead of a campaign which will be under tension.
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• What are the specifics of Trump’s indictment in Georgia?
Donald Trump has been charged alongside 18 other people with trying to reverse the result of the 2020 presidential election in Georgia, a key polling state. This procedure relates to part of the facts covered by the indictment on August 1 of Donald Trump in federal court in Washington, but the procedure is this time facing the State of Georgia.
The case, however, has different implications than those at the federal level, underlines to “the Obs” the political scientist specializing in the United States Nicole Bacharan. “The case of Georgia is very strong because Trump is not charged alone but with 19 other people, thanks to a law that falls under the fight against organized crime. »
“Of the 41 charges, many have public evidence”explains the political scientist, citing a phone call unveiled in 2021. In it, Donald Trump tries to put pressure on a Republican elected official in charge of the elections in the State of Georgia, Ben Raffensperger, to whom he launches, between two cajoling : ” All that I want, said the billionaire, is to find 11,780 ballots”. Or the exact number of votes he needed to win in this key state against Joe Biden.
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To this overwhelming appeal are added “memos and documents that circulated in the Trump team”, explains Nicole Bacharan, highlighting in particular a desire to put in place false electors.
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“The fact that there is such compelling evidence suggests that Trump could be convicted,” says Nicole Bacharan.
If Georgia is the first state to prosecute Trump, others could however follow, also underlines the political scientist: at the federal level, Trump is indeed accused of having wanted to interfere in the electoral process of seven key states.
• Does Donald Trump risk prison?
This is another peculiarity of Georgia in this case: the Fulton County prosecutor, Fani Willis, charged the 19 defendants under a law in force in Georgia on organized crime, used in particular against gangs. , which provides for a minimum sentence of five years in prison.
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“Will an Eta judge have the power to send a former president to prison, with all possible remedies at the federal level, the right of pardon, presidential immunity, the Supreme Court? We are truly in an unknown land.” objected, however, the political scientist.
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Could a convicted or imprisoned candidate still campaign? Nothing in the US Constitution prevents a citizen convicted or having a lawsuit from trying to gain access to the White House. Moreover, there is a precedent: in 1920, a socialist candidate campaigned for the primaries from… his prison cell.
• If elected, could Donald Trump pardon himself?
This is a question that torments jurists and historians: if Donald Trump is convicted in one of these cases, but is elected president in November 2024, will he be able to pardon himself? In fact, there is normally a basic principle of law: a magistrate or an elected official cannot rule in his favor.
“Trump has nothing to do with legal considerations, underlines however Nicole Bacharan, recalling the various precedents established by Donald Trump himself during his mandate. If he is elected, he may try to pardon himself, because it has been a strategy from the start: to bulldoze all the standards of law, then it is up to his opponents and the courts to prove that he couldn’t do it. We also see the analyzes change over time: previously, lawyers said “he can’t do it”. Now it’s “what if he does”? »
If he is convicted in Georgia, however, the problem will be more thorny than for a federal conviction: Trump should not be able to pardon himself or obtain the dismissal of the charges by the office of the prosecutor, because it is the authority of the state which takes precedence, and not that of the federal state.
• How can these indictments influence the Trump campaign?
Donald Trump’s multiple indictments point to an extraordinary election campaign. On the one hand, political temporality and that of justice risk colliding on several occasions. “In all, nine trials are being preparedrecalls Nicole Bacharan. Washington District Attorney Jack Smith has already said he wants the first to be held in January. The last one will probably take place after the election. » Between the two, a trial is notably scheduled for May 2024 in the case of confidential documents. What pose multiple problems of agenda for the candidate Trump, whose presence may be required in court, between his meetings, the days of the polls and the many debates which are announced.
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From a financial point of view, however, the indictments of Donald Trump are almost a boon, underlines the political scientist: “It only benefits him by allowing him to present himself as a martyr, and by a sleight of hand whose legality does not seem obvious to me, he uses campaign funds to finance his defense”, she explains. For weeks, Donald Trump has been multiplying emails to his supporters asking them to get their hands on the wallet. “Biden’s Justice Department is trying to get me TO LIFE IN JAIL”he pleaded again without evidence on Sunday, before inciting his “patriots” to donate $24 to $1,000 to his campaign.
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As for her standing in the polls, the indictments are unlikely to move her: “Right now, he’s a huge Republican favorite, and behind him nothing is taking shape. DeSantis’ campaign is so bad that I don’t see him rallying the anti-Trump behind him.” forward Nicole Bacharan.
Above all, she points out, “Trump continues to hold the Republican Party in the palm of his hand, as his base constitutes 30% of the overall electorate. For others, if his first appearance in court was something new, now after the indictment for the Capitol, for the confidential documents, Georgia… All this becomes more complicated and less interesting to follow. »
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