To this day, no one has managed to break the world longevity record for French Jeanne Calment, who died in 1997 at the age of 122 years and 164 days. Currently, the oldest living person is the Spanish María Branyas, 116 years old. The oldest known living man is Juan Vicente Pérez, from Venezuela, at 113 years old.
According to a new study, human life expectancy may surpass the current record of 122 years and reach 150. The conclusions of the authors David McCarthyI and Po-Lin Wang, of the Terry College of Business at the University of Georgia and the Muma College of Business University of South Florida, are based on an analysis of mortality rates over three centuries in 19 countries using a variant of Gompertz’s law of mortality. “We found that it fits the cohort mortality data extremely well. Using this law, we identified the youngest age at which individuals in each cohort reach an assumed mortality plateau, which we call the Gompertzian Maximum Age (GMA). We found that, for much of the period covered by our data, there was no increase in GMA. Thus, historical improvements in life expectancy were largely the result of mortality compression.”
Increases the Gompertzian Maximum Age
However, the study shows that there were also times when the GMA increased. “The presence of these episodes of postponement of mortality suggests that, in fact, the maximum duration of human life is not fixed,” the study suggests. The first episode occurred in cohorts born in the early second half of the 19th century, the second, much more significant, affects cohorts born between 1910 and 1950 (that is, those currently between 70 and 110 years of age).
In theory, the Gompertzian Maximum Age (GMA) should indicate the upper limit of human life expectancy. If the GMA is fairly constant from one cohort to another, we can assume that there is a maximum age. On the other hand, if GMA were found to increase across cohorts, there might be reason to suspect that mortality is being “postponed,” meaning that if there is a limit to lifespan etched into our biology, we haven’t yet. Seen it takes effect.
“We found that the cohorts born between about 1900 and 1950 are still too young to break longevity records,” McCarthy says in the journal PLoS ONE. “Therefore, as these cohorts reach advanced ages in the coming decades, longevity records could increase significantly. Our results confirm previous work suggesting that if there is an upper limit to human life expectancy, we are not yet at it.” approaching him.”
Longevity Depends on Political Actions
“Whether or not there is a limit to human lifespan has been the subject of debate for millennia,” continues David McCarthy. “Historical estimates of the maximum possible life expectancy strongly suggest that it has increased considerably throughout history.” The authors further stressed that cohorts born before 1950 will only have the potential to break existing longevity records if policy decisions continue to support the health and well-being of older people and the political, environmental and economic environment remains stable.
Edited by Isabella Escobedo