2024-02-19 06:59:32
It is not within the strength of the Bulgarian players – the investments are huge, the construction period is long
Bulgaria stepped up to capture the wind in the sea and use it to make electricity at a low price. And with bills for billions of euros in new investments, a special law for this passed through the parliament in the first reading. But
actually there is no one stated
investor interest
to offshore wind in our Black Sea waters. Representatives of the Danish company Orsted – the largest investor in offshore wind, British Petroleum and the French company Total, which is looking for gas in the Bulgarian waters of the Black Sea, have come to our country for meetings with ministers.
Who will show interest in offshore wind in the Bulgarian waters of the Black Sea, it is hard to guess for now.
Deputies from the energy committee in the parliament admit lobbying from English and German sources for the adoption of a law on offshore wind.
In the world, there are not many companies that invest in offshore wind farms, because the investments are huge, the term for their construction is long, experience is required and this is within the capabilities of mega-companies, energy experts comment. It is not within the strength of the Bulgarian players to throw themselves into such an undertaking, since the investment for one park is about 2.2 billion euros.
Lately
big oil and gas companies too
invest money in parks in the sea,
and in other renewable sources, including huge energy companies such as EDF in France for example.
The energy industry admits that if there is an interest in the Black Sea, it will come from large companies from Northern Europe.
However, Orsted announced on February 7 that it was exiting several offshore markets – Norway, Spain and Portugal – and revising its priorities in Japan to reduce costs. It is also scaling back its development of floating wind turbine systems. The company is redirecting its offshore strategy to the US. It will also pay no dividend for the financial years 2023-2025.
Among the large infrastructure funds investing in offshore wind farms around the world is Copenhagen Investment Partners (CIP). In addition to building and managing such type of offshore parks, it
has targeted floating
offshore platforms
In Germany, among the companies that build wind power plants in the sea is RWE, which is known in our country for its interest in participating at a very early stage in the “Belene” project, which it later abandoned. The company owns and operates offshore wind turbines across Europe with a total capacity of 3.3 gigawatts, with a target of 8 gigawatts by 2030. It participates in tenders in Europe, North America and the Asia-Pacific region. Among its biggest projects is the offshore wind farm “Sofia” – 1400 megawatts, on the British coast.
Another German company developing offshore parks is WPD. It operates in 29 countries and has experience of installing 2,630 turbines with a capacity of 6,110 megawatts.
It is possible that investor interest in offshore wind farms will increase, but to date not a single project has been structured. Experts and politicians suspect that this would change if there was a legal and regulatory framework in place. Even then, however, work on the first project
it may be a fact
only by 2027
The actual construction of the first offshore wind farms is expected by 2032-2033.
The draft law envisages tenders for a 30-year concession, and whoever gives the lowest price receives a contract for the difference.
In it, the ceiling is set at BGN 160 per megawatt hour. That is, if the price on the stock exchange is below BGN 160, the investor receives the difference from the “Security of the Electricity System” fund. If it is above this level – refund.
After the adoption of the first reading of the draft law, PP-DB deputy Ivaylo Mirchev wrote on his online page that “the potential of offshore wind in the Bulgarian part of the Black Sea is between 65 and 116 gigawatts (for comparison, the two reactors of the Kozloduy NPP have a total of just over 2 gigawatts). Wind turbines operate 46% of the year, making them a reliable source of energy (those in aecsa work 90%)”.
According to him, Bulgaria is the only country in Europe without a law allowing placing fins in the sea.
Romania overtook
and in its part of the Black Sea, projects for over €2 billion are already being developed, he wrote. The deputy expects the law to be finally adopted in February, and around 2030 for the first wind turbines to start operating.
Recently, managers of a large German company advised a Bulgarian representative from the upper floors of the energy industry
let’s absorb the capacity first
on land wind
For such projects, there are applications for 7,000 megawatts of capacity.
Martin Vladimirov of the Center for the Study of Democracy and co-author of the first technical-economic analysis of the potential of offshore wind in the sea commented that there is nothing in common between wind farms on land and those in the sea. According to his calculations, the capacity of offshore wind farms is 42%, that is how much they are loaded during the year at a turbine power of 8 megawatts. He believes they are approaching baseload capacities because the offshore wind is relatively constant and the fins can provide power during peak evening demand hours and thus save on coal-fired power.
He specifies that at the moment there is no new power plant that works with turbines below 10 megawatts, that is, the technologies are developing. Considering that in our country the offshore wind turbines will start to be built after 2025-2026, they will have a turbine power of at least 12-15 megawatts. With more powerful turbines and longer blades, a capacity of 50-55% operation is reached during the year.
Vladimirov believes that profitable projects that can be built in our waters,
have a capacity of 26 megawatts
And since the reality is more sober, that’s why they made an assessment of priority areas where the wind is the strongest and the depth is the smallest – there the power is 4 gigawatts. The expert predicts that by 2050 there will be 7,000 megawatts of wind farms on land and 4,000 offshore
Vladimirov recalls that, unlike the Baltic or North, the Black Sea is more difficult because of the great depths.
The price of electricity from these offshore wind farms is calculated at 75 euros per megawatt hour. At the moment, the average price on the market is 100 euros per megawatt hour, it is expected to remain at 90-95 euros until 2030, this is the latest modeling that we announced in September last year together with the European Commission, says the analyst.
According to him, with these forecasts
offshore wind farms
they don’t need support
What, then, does the draft law provide for contracts for difference? Such contracts have nothing to do with preferential tariffs, commented Vladimirov. It was needed by the investors not to guarantee their profit, but a lower interest rate from the financing institutions, which makes the costs smaller. This has been adopted in every country in Europe investing in offshore wind. The principle everywhere is competitive – an auction, and whoever gives the lowest price gets the contract for the difference. The capital investment is huge and the investor must have guarantees that he will implement the project without going bankrupt, commented Vladimirov.
Nikola Gazdov, chairman of the Association for Production, Storage and Trade of Electricity, calculated: Solar plants produce electricity between 1500 and 1700 hours a year, wind farms on land work between 2300 and 2900 hours, wind blades at sea are loaded from 3500 to 3800 hours , in a year of 8760 hours. If the different RES are combined, 4000 hours can be covered. And combined with batteries, PAVETS “Chaira” and new PAVETS, this volume can be increased and will probably reach 5000 hours.
4 zones are most suitable
There are four areas where wind power plants can be built in our country.
It’s the first one Stencil – to the Romanian sea border, at a distance of up to 30 km from the coast. In this section of the Black Sea there is the best wind, and the area is 435 sq. km. The wind speed there is between 7.6 and 8 meters per second at 150 m height. The deepest part in the area is 60 m, but in most of the space the depth is below 50 m. Installing wind vanes will be viable. Possible capacities are between 4.3 and 5 gigawatts.
The second is the area at Varna, it is the smallest, only 40 square km, but it is close to the third largest city in Bulgaria with a population of almost 400 thousand people. Because of the industrial demand for electricity nearby, it is considered important for offshore wind energy. The initial technical potential is estimated at 400-500 megawatts. The wind speed is 7.2 -7.4 meters per second, but only a small part can be used because of the intense marine traffic in the area.
The third is near Review, about 30 km by sea to Burgas. The area is 125 sq. km, the water depth is 15-35 m. The wind speed is 7.5-7.9 meters per second at 150 m height. The technical capacity of the wind farms is estimated between 1.2 and 1.5 gigawatts.
The fourth is at the Turkish maritime border, away from the coast. This section was chosen because of its proximity to a planned submarine high-voltage cable connecting Romania and Turkey. The distance between the area and the future submarine cable is 20 km. The area itself is 200 square km, and the sea depth is between 400 and 1000 m. From a technological and cost point of view, the area is not particularly attractive. (24 cups)