As New Zealand First dips to 8 percent in a recent 1News-Verian poll, leader Winston Peters faces a stark choice between loyalty to his core base and pursuing fringe culture-war votes, just three months before the country goes to the polls.
Poll Numbers Slip as Political Pressures Mount
With less than three months until the country goes to the polls, Winston Peters finds himself at a crucial crossroads. A 1News-Verian poll reveals that New Zealand First has dropped three points down to 8 percent, placing the party equal with the rising minor party, Opportunity. Meanwhile, RNZ notes that National remains unchanged at 29 percent.
The survey was conducted between Saturday and Tuesday, though 1News pulled out of the field early after Christopher Luxon summoned his MPs to Wellington. Consequently, the poll collected 847 respondents out of a usual sample size of 1,000, leaving a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent.
This drop marks a sharp reversal for New Zealand First, which had been soaring in recent surveys. In a mid-July Reid Research series, the party registered its strongest result in nine years, reaching 11.5 percent.
Inflammatory Rhetoric and Backlash
The recent downward trend follows a volatile stretch in Parliament. During a general debate, Peters became sidetracked by heckling from Chinese-born Green MP Lawrence Xu-Nan. Peters told the lawmaker to go back to your own country
and added, that’s where they lie like a flatfish
.
The remarks triggered swift protests from the Chinese Embassy in New Zealand. Initially, Peters claimed he made the comments as New Zealand First leader, but the office of the Minister of Foreign Affairs later responded by saying he stood by the statements.
The backlash extended well beyond opposition benches. The Chinese-Kiwi community and even Peters’ own coalition partners condemned the remarks, with Luxon explicitly labeling them racist
. Longtime supporters within the party appear equally fatigued by the inflammatory direction.
The Strategic Divide Within New Zealand First
The internal tension highlights a growing ideological split among party supporters. The modern iteration of New Zealand First comprises two distinct factions: pro-industry, mining, exporting, and economic-growth advocates alongside a newer group of fringe culture-war antagonists.
Deputy leader Shane Jones primarily represents the first group. While Jones has led recent anti-immigration rhetoric—warning of a butter chicken tsunami
stemming from a potential Indian Free Trade Agreement—he generally steers clear of fringe cultural grievances such as Covid vaccination injuries or public bathroom access.
As National continues to poll under 30 percent, ripe votes remain available for minor parties. However, the latest data indicates that ACT is primarily benefiting from National’s stalling and New Zealand First’s decline. By spending time addressing a small, disenfranchised fringe, Peters risks alienating middle New Zealand voters who are considering moving away from the traditional purple vote.
Lessons from the 2020 Campaign Playbook
Peters does not have to look far to see how this trajectory ends. In the 2020 election, New Zealand First plummeted from holding the roles of deputy prime minister and foreign minister to being shut out of Parliament entirely.
Campaign strategies between 2017 and 2020 offer a stark contrast. In 2017, Peters campaigned aggressively as an opposition figure targeting National and Labour voters, presenting himself as a stabilizing kingmaker. By 2020, campaigning as part of a coalition government alongside a popular Labour administration during a pandemic, he initially pledged to run a relentlessly positive
campaign.
That approach derailed quickly. Shortly after the 2020 campaign started in August, then-Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern postponed the election from September to October as Auckland managed a new community cluster while the rest of the country stayed at Level 2. With traditional town halls banned, Peters pivoted to attacking Ardern directly while her personal popularity surged—a fatal miscalculation that alienated senior party members like Ron Mark and Tracey Martin.
