Time.news – More than 43 billion in higher debts for businesses and families, 456 thousand fewer employed persons and approximately 5.2 billion in lost local tax collections. The birth rate deficit is also dramatic: almost 61,000 fewer businesses than in 2019. And, again, an increase in the incidence of family poverty with around 369,000 more families in conditions of severe economic hardship. Finally, there are six regional realities to be “weakened” by the crisis: Piedmont, Veneto, Trentino-Alto Adige, Liguria and Calabria.
This is what emerges from Iser, lregional economic suffering index devised by Demoskopika who, comparing 2020 with 2019, tried to quantify the possible impacts of the pandemic on the Italian economic and social system on the basis of some parameters: incidence of relative family poverty, full-time and part-time employees, entrepreneurial birth rate, business loans , consumer credit for families and, finally, local tax and non-tax revenues.
“The pandemic crisis – declares the president of Demoskopika, Raffaele Rio – has not affected all local economies in a uniform way. The indicators observed and summarized by the regional economic suffering index show that some regional systems are suffering more severely respect to others. Even if for everyone the alarm is undoubtedly red “
Furthermore, Raffaele Rio continues, “the new wave returns to sharpen the worry curve of households and businesses, producing a slowdown in entrepreneurial birth rates and increasing the liquidity needs of households and businesses. And this generates, despite the mitigation actions of public measures, a further expansion of the level of indebtedness and impoverishment of the economic and social system. It will be fundamental – concludes Raffaele Rio – to understand how local systems will hold up, in terms of sustainability, the impact of the end, for example, of the freezing of layoffs and layoffs, of the moratorium on loans, mortgages and financing, of transfer measures of additional resources to local authorities “.
Piedmont, Veneto and Trentino the “most suffering” systems
Among the economic and social systems most “tested” by the pandemic emergency (red areas) are Piedmont which totaled 111.7 points, Veneto with 107.8 points and Trentino-Alto Adige with 107.5 points.
The trend of loans to businesses for Piedmont has a negative impact on the positioning at the top of the ranking, which recorded an increase of over 9.2 billion euros, equal to 19 percent compared to 2019, growth of 2.7 percent of the incidence of relative poverty for Veneto quantifiable in over 56 thousand new households in conditions of severe economic hardship and, finally, the higher indebtedness of families for Trentino-Alto Adige with a growth in consumer credit equal to 46 million euros (+ 3.4%).
And, moreover, again in the area of economic and social systems with a “very high” level of suffering, there are two other regional realities: Liguria (106.3 points) with a contraction in the entrepreneurial birth rate of almost 2,000 new businesses ( -21.2 percent) and Calabria (104.7 points) with a quantifiable decline in over 23,000 fewer employees (-4.3%).
With Covid 369 thousand more families in poverty
Over 369,000 more families in relative poverty the incidence of which is calculated, according to the Istat definition, on the basis of a conventional threshold (poverty line) which identifies the value of consumption expenditure below which a family is defined as poor in relative terms. This is the impact of the pandemic emergency on the area of economic hardship estimated by Demoskopika for 2020.
In particular, the incidence of families with economic difficulties in the use of goods and services on the total universe of Italian households would increase by 2.1 per cent: from 11.4 per cent in 2019 to 13.5 percent of 2020. The territorial realities with the greatest incidence of relative poverty are all in the North. In detail, there are over 56,000 households in Veneto, with an increase in the area of economic hardship equal to 2.7 percentage points, in a condition of relative poverty due to a pandemic crisis.
This is followed by Liguria with over 18 thousand families, equal to a growth of 2.4 percentage points and Piedmont with about 40 thousand families, equal to an increase of 2 percentage points. In the opposite direction, the regional systems with a less significant increase in the phenomenon are all in the South: Sardinia with over 3.6 thousand families (+0.5 percentage points) and, finally, Molise, Abruzzo and Basilicata respectively with 786 households , 3.4 thousand households and 1.4 thousand households with an incidence of relative poverty on the total of families for each region equal to 0.6 per cent.
The employed collapsed, Sardinia, Calabria, Molise black jersey
The crisis triggered by the Covid-19 emergency has also made the job market more vulnerable. According to the latest Istat data on a regional basis, in 2020 the employed registered a sharp decline equal to 2 per cent: over 456 thousand individuals with less employment, of which more than half (55%) concerned subjects with a full time job. A situation even more evident if compared to the previous two-year period: in 2019, in particular, there was a growth of 0.6 per cent compared to the previous year, quantifiable as 145,000 new full and part-time employees while in the same period of 2018 the increase was equal to 0.8 per cent with 192 thousand more employees.
At a regional level, mainly seven local systems have lost the number of employed persons on the street: Sardinia with a contraction equal to 4.6 per cent (-27.224 employed), Calabria with 4.3 per cent ( -23,472 employed) and Molise with 3.0 per cent (-3,280 employed). Followed by Piedmont with 2.8 per cent (-51,503 employed), Veneto with 2.4 per cent (-51,553 employed),
Valle d’Aosta with 2.4 per cent (-1.352 employed), Marche with 2.2 per cent (-14.100 employed) and Emilia-Romagna with 2.1 per cent (-42.807 employed).
It curbs the desire to do business
In the twelve months of 2020, Demoskopika, analyzing Bank of Italy data, noted the growth in loans to businesses driven by the introduction of substantial public guarantees: over 42.3 billion in increase in credit to businesses, equal to an increase of 6 per cent compared to 2019. At the territorial level, the increase in the liquidity needs of the entrepreneurial system was mainly recorded in three regional realities: Piedmont with a growth in loans of € 9.2 billion (+ 19%), Friuli-Venezia Giulia with an increase of € 2.3 billion (+ 15.7%) and Lazio with an increase of € 8.1 billion (+ 10.3%) in higher loans to businesses. Diametrically opposite trend for Abruzzo and Tuscany, whose regional systems recorded a decline in loans to businesses equal to 185.8 million euro (-1.7%) and 107.7 million euro (-0.2%) respectively.
The pandemic emergency also affects the desire to do business. In 2020, the dynamics of birth rates recorded recorded a decrease of 17.2 per cent compared to 2019, with 60,744 fewer companies registered. Although in an overall picture of worsening, the data show some differences at the territorial level. Negatively, in terms of the percentage change from 2020 to 2019, the economic system of the Marche region stands out, with a decrease in the number of registrations by 23.9 percent, equal to 2,120 fewer companies.
This is followed, with a decline above the national average, by Liguria with a reduction in the birth rate of 21.2 per cent (-1,985 businesses), Piedmont with 19.4 per cent (-5,030 businesses), Lazio with 19.2 per cent (-7.675 enterprises), Emilia – Romagna with 18.5 per cent (-4.700 enterprises), Tuscany with 18.1 per cent (-4.371 enterprises). And, again, Lombardy with 17.6 per cent (-10.270 businesses), Lazio with 19.2 per cent (-7.675 businesses) and, finally, Veneto (-4.627 businesses), Puglia (-4.125 enterprises) and Trentino Alto Adige (-1,152 enterprises) with a decrease of 17.5 per cent.
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