The thinning has taken place. Thanks to “whatever it takes” and a dynamic economic recovery in 2021, the deficit has risen from 8.9% to 6.5% last year. Ditto for the debt, which rose from 114.6% to 112.9% between 2020 and 2021.
Should we claim victory? Not too fast. “The figures are good, it’s obvious, analyzes Anne-Sophie Alsif, chief economist at the Bureau of Information and Economic Forecasts (BIPE). These good results are driven by growth of 7%, ultimately better than expected because INSEE forecast 6.75%. »
Despite price increases of 5 to 10% in household appliances, furniture and building materials, the French continued to consume last year. “They still had a sturdy savings mattress and still benefited whatever it cost,” she continues. The situation is likely to change in 2022.
Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in the first quarter of 2022 and the surge in energy prices, the forecasts have turned red. Inflation, forecast before the conflict at 2.2% for 2022, could ultimately approach 4%.
“Before the war, an increase in energy prices was expected until spring, now it should be for the whole year, specifies Anne-Sophie Alsif. And then lately, companies have been affected by the lack of raw materials and are drawing on their margins to cope. In the second quarter, there will be an increase in consumer prices for households. It is not certain that this time they will be able to absorb these increases and this will have consequences on growth. »
“Household purchasing power is expected to fall by 0.5% in 2022”
The presidential election could also add fuel to the fire. Because if the end of “whatever the cost” is probably not for tomorrow, the next government will have to make efforts to reduce the debt and achieve a deficit close to 3% by quickly implementing its structural reforms.
“In these cases, households always favor precautionary savings,” says the BIPE economist. If the purchasing power of households stood at 2% in 2021, it should fall by 0.5% in 2022, in particular due to inflation. All of this will have an impact on our deficit. »