Asia Trends
2024.04.11
asian economy
korean economy
International issues/international issues
The ruling party’s crushing defeat in the South Korean general election leaves the Yun administration in a state of “death”, which may also affect Japan-Korea relations.
~We need to be careful of the possibility that it will not only affect the future of Japan-Korea relations, but also the future of the regional situation~
Toru Nishihama
Abstract
- A general election was held in South Korea on the 10th. While it is attracting attention as an “interim evaluation” of the Yun administration, both the ruling and opposition parties engaged in a critical battle during the election campaign, focusing on issues such as the declining birthrate and aging population, economic disparity, relations with China, and North Korea. Despite mounting issues such as the Korean issue, policy debates did not deepen. On the other hand, during the election campaign, the opposition party insisted on “judging the government” and criticized the administration’s favoritism to its own people, its self-righteous and authoritarian attitude regarding administration, a series of scandals, and its lack of understanding of the economy. According to local reports, the opposition party gained more than 170 seats, while the ruling party suffered a crushing defeat, losing just over 100 seats. In addition, although efforts were made to improve Japan-Korea relations under the Yun administration, stagnation is inevitable in the future, as a lawmaker who played a central role was defeated in the general election, and it is expected that this will also have an impact on the regional situation. It will be done.
South Korea held its once-every-four-year general election on the 10th. For the Yun Seok-Yeol administration, which took office after the presidential election two years ago, the current general election has the meaning of an “mid-term evaluation” as there are just over three years left in its term. On the other hand, the power of the conservative ruling party that supports the Yoon administration remains in the minority in the National Assembly, and the “twisted state” between the president and the National Assembly has become a bottleneck in the management of the government, so attention has focused on its fate. . In addition, although preliminary opinion polls showed that the support ratings of both the main reform-oriented opposition parties and the Democratic Party of Japan continued to exceed the power of the people, since the beginning of the year, former representatives of both the ruling and opposition parties have been promoting a “third pole” in order to capture independent voters. There were moves to form a new party with this goal. Furthermore, due to the “losing enemy” in which factional conflicts within the Democratic Party surfaced over the selection of certified candidates, the approval ratings of People’s Power temporarily exceeded those of the Democratic Party, but towards the end, opposition forces The ruling party entered voting day in a weak position as it showed signs of gaining momentum again. The reason behind the opposition gaining momentum toward the final stage was the “Homeland Reform Party,” a new progressive party founded by Cho Kuk, who was the justice minister in the previous Moon Jae-in administration. has a large presence. Mr. Cho himself was originally seen as Mr. Moon’s successor, but when he assumed the position of justice minister, allegations of corruption surrounding his relatives and himself arose one after another (he was nicknamed the “onion man” after a series of allegations arose), and he was found guilty. Despite receiving the verdict, he waged a campaign in which his criticism of the prosecutor’s self-righteous attitude in a series of investigations into suspicions was comparable to criticism of the administration. On top of that, while the Fatherland Revolutionary Party ran an election campaign using only proportional representation, it appeared to be willing to fight together with the Democratic Party in the constituencies, which appears to have put its momentum behind the party. The Yun administration has been criticized for being “nepotistic,” with many former prosecutors, including Yun, who was originally the prosecutor general, occupying central positions, and its political methods have also been criticized as self-righteous. , has been criticized for being too authoritarian and for being ineffective in dealing with economic policies such as high prices and housing issues. Under these circumstances, there were a number of allegations within the administration that he had pressured former Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop over the investigation, as well as a series of inappropriate comments made by former Blue House Chief of Staff Hwang Sang-moo. There has been a series of scandals surrounding the first lady (Kim Kun-hee) that are hampering the administration. Furthermore, the medical community opposed the plan to increase the capacity of medical schools proposed by the Yun administration to combat the shortage of doctors, causing a large number of trainee doctors to leave and causing confusion in the medical field, which continues to be a problem for a long time. This is leading to a situation where The country’s economy is undergoing rapid changes, with the country’s total fertility rate hitting a record low of 0.72 for the eighth straight year last year. Despite the country’s declining birthrate and aging population, continuing widening social and economic disparities, the future of relations with China amidst the movement toward global division, and the North Korea issue, among other issues, the country faces a variety of issues. During the election campaign, policy debates did not deepen at all, with both the ruling and opposition parties engaged in a blame game. Despite these circumstances, in this general election, the opposition party’s slogans of “judgment of the government” and the ruling party’s “judgment of the opposition” clashed head-on, and the voter turnout was 66.99%, an increase of 0.78 points from the previous general election in 2020. At the same time, it attracted the attention of the public as it was the second highest general election performance after the 1992 general election. According to local reports, at the 99% stage of vote counting, the number of seats won by the Democratic Party exceeds 170, including affiliated parties, exceeding the current number of seats (156), while the number of seats won by People’s Power, including affiliated parties, exceeds the current number of seats (156 seats). However, it seems certain that the ruling party will suffer a crushing defeat, with just over 100 seats, less than the current number of seats (114). Opposition parties appear to have aimed to win 200 seats, which would allow them to impeach the president and repass bills he had vetoed, but that appears to have been avoided. On the other hand, the ruling party is said to have aimed to secure at least 121 seats, which would allow them to prevent the opposition party from introducing a bill to the parliament, but they were unable to reach that level, and the remaining three years of the Yun administration’s term will become even more difficult. It is expected that strict administration will be required. In this sense, it is inevitable that President Yoon and his administration will quickly turn into a “lame duck” due to a decline in centripetal force. For Japan, after the inauguration of the Yun administration, there were signs of great progress toward improving relations within South Korea, despite dissent centering on reformists, but in the general election, the Korea-Japan Parliamentary Federation, which had been a driving force behind these movements, failed. It appears that the chairman, Jeong Jin-seok, and former foreign minister of the Yun administration, Park Jin, have lost the election one after another, raising the possibility that the party will be forced into stagnation. Despite the need for a cooperative relationship regarding the North Korea issue and relations with China, it is also important to note that the increasing possibility of a draft blowing will have a negative impact on the regional situation. There will be.
Toru Nishihama