He noted that the members of Trump’s cabinet are controversial figures who will have to be confirmed by the US Senate. The LAI researcher has no doubt that the next Secretary of State Marco Rubio will receive the support of the US Senate, given his experience as a senator, his reputation and also the relevance of his views, which will ensure the continuity of US foreign policy.
According to Schrader, Trump’s team will include a variety of individuals whose reputations are in question. For example, confirmation of US Army veteran and Fox News host Pete Hegsett as defense secretary could be challenging in the US Senate, despite his active efforts to justify his eligibility to senators.
“It should be understood that the US Senate is currently fully controlled by the Republican Party, whose nominated candidate Trump won the election. Therefore, the approval of any positions and nominations in the US Senate is much easier than if it were controlled by the Democratic Party,” said a LATO board member.
According to him, Trump has entrusted a very important position to former Democrat Tulsi Gabbard, who will oversee all 18 US security agencies. Shrader explained that her personality is controversial – the Russians have called Gabbard their agent or a person who could support the presence of Russian interests or narratives in US foreign policy.
The expert explained that US national security agencies play an important role, as they supply information to policy decision makers and also to other agencies responsible for security and foreign policy issues in order to make appropriate decisions. He also mentioned that two positions that do not require US Senate confirmation are no less important. At issue is the post of national security adviser, which has been chosen by the army veteran, Congressman Michael Waltz, and the post of special representative for Ukraine and Russia, which has been watched by retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg.
The LAI researcher noted that Kellogg was one of those who developed the peace plan and supported the “America First” position. Shrader mentioned that this peace plan contains many proposals that neither Ukraine nor Europe would accept, for example, arms deliveries would depend on whether Ukraine accepts the US peace plan, which provides for Ukraine’s refusal to join and participate in NATO, or European countries and US joint decision not to admit Ukraine into the alliance.
“Also, the US peace plan envisages that the war can be “frozen” in the existing territories of Ukraine currently controlled by Russia. This means that about 20% of the occupied territory, including Crimea, would come under Russian control and a demilitarized buffer zone would be created between Russia and Ukraine. It would the introduction of a wide gray area, which the Baltic states and Central Eastern European countries would like to avoid,” said the expert.
According to him, the proposal of the US peace plan to reduce the sanctions against Russia seems strange, however, the plan includes an important aspect that would be in the interests of Ukraine – various taxes and fees from the trade of Russian energy resources, which could be directed to the reconstruction of Ukraine. In Schrader’s view, this is the only point on which Europeans, Americans and Ukrainians could agree, but other points contradict the peace plan of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which he presented to both the US and European leaders.
The expert also noted that the plan and policy recommendations were made before the elections. According to him, this means that the plans also contain elements of populism. As a diplomat trying to resolve this conflict by talking to the Americans, Europeans, Ukrainians and possibly the Russians, Kellogg will have to find a compromise. It could be significantly different from what the pre-election promises have been.
Schrader noted that Kellogg will not be acting alone and will certainly have the support of the president’s administration, but there is also national security adviser Volz, who is known in the Republican Party, the US Congress and the wider public as a man who supports a radical policy against China and Iran. A LATO board member explained that China and Iran are among Russia’s closest allies. This means that Kellogg will have to find common ground with the rest of the administration when it comes to shaping US foreign policy.
“Contradictions also come to light here. On the one hand, Trump has chosen a person to work in his administration who, before the election, participated in a policy proposal to stop Russia’s war against Ukraine. On the other hand, there is a national security adviser who will play an important role in the US administration, and who could consider Russia to be Iran’s and China’s ally,” Schrader emphasized.
According to him, given these contradictions, US foreign policy towards Russia could be drastic. The LAI researcher pointed to already visible signs, such as in US policy debates with Trump’s Vice President-elect Jay Dee Vance saying that both Europeans and Americans need to sit down at the negotiating table to resolve the war. The outgoing US President Joe Biden’s administration was also blamed for starting the war in the first place, and the inability of the Biden administration to make decisive decisions was also pointed out. The US president’s foreign policy has also been mentioned, which has not been effective enough, and Biden himself has not been decisive enough in foreign policy to end the war much sooner.
“We can only hope that in this unpredictable environment and the inclusion of various controversial personalities in the leading foreign policy and security policy positions of the Trump administration, the foreign policy positions of Europeans, Ukrainians and Americans will be in line with the requirements of the Ukrainian peace plan,” said a member of the LATO board.
He also pointed out that any frozen conflict or short-term cessation of hostilities would lead to Russia being able to rearm again and pursue its security interests, for example by fully occupying Ukraine, trying to split NATO and expanding hostilities in another country. In the opinion of the researcher, such a scenario will not be beneficial for Europe, Ukraine, or the United States, so it is necessary to ensure that the peace plan proposed by Ukraine is taken into account in the foreign policy of the United States. Shrader emphasized that Ukrainian and European leaders can play an important role in the policy formulation process.
“Given that US foreign policy towards Ukraine could change in terms of arms deliveries, or [ja] the US vision of ending the war in Ukraine is changing, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk plays an important role. “Polish leaders have made it clear that Europe needs to change its foreign and security policy towards Ukraine, so that Europe can provide Ukraine with arms supplies in case the US reduces arms supplies or stops them altogether,” explained the LAI researcher.
Schrader noted that Poland’s views on the resolution of the war are close to those of Ukraine. The expert concluded that Poland’s position would be desirable for the Baltic States, Nordic countries and other countries in order to restore the security architecture in Europe and deter Russia from attacking NATO, stop the war in Ukraine and prevent Russia from seizing further territories on its border.