“Within 18 months, we will have inflation-related crises everywhere in the emerging world”

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Protesters demand the resignation of Sri Lanka’s President Gotabaya Rajapaksa inside the presidential palace complex in Colombo on July 9, 2022. – / AFP

MAINTENANCE – The president of the island state fled his residence this Saturday, against the backdrop of an unprecedented economic and political crisis. A scenario that risks repeating itself in other emerging economies, according to Jean-Joseph Boillot, researcher at IRIS.

Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled his official residence in Colombo on Saturday morning minutes before it was stormed by thousands of angry protesters.

The island nation has suffered for several months from an unprecedented shortage of basic necessities (energy, medicine, food), and its 22 million inhabitants suffer from galloping inflation and prolonged power cuts. The country, in default of payment for the first time in its history, had been preparing its population since last spring for austerity measures to obtain aid from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). An economic crisis that quickly turned into a social and political crisis: for months, demonstrators camped outside the headquarters of the presidency in Colombo to demand the resignation of the President, whom they accuse of mismanagement.

Jean-Joseph Boillot, researcher specializing in the Indian economy and advisor for emerging countries at IRIS, returns to Le Figaro on the beginnings of this unprecedented economic, social and political crisis. A scenario which could, anticipates the expert, affect several other emerging economies in the world, weakened by the consequences of the war in Ukraine.

LE FIGARO. – Since April, Sri Lanka has been in default of payments, for the first time in its history, and its economy is facing a “total collapse”, in the words of the Prime Minister. What was the trigger for such bankruptcy?

Jean-Joseph Boillot. – As the great financier Warren Buffet described it, it is when the tide goes out that we see the swimmers who are naked. Let me explain: the war in Ukraine has brought to light…

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