2023-07-08 20:56:00
Bombing in Ukraine / Photo: AFP.
The war in Ukraine celebrates 500 days this Saturday with nule prospects for peace and without decisive advances on the front, so much of the focus is on the fallout from the US-announced cluster bomb shipment and next week’s NATO summit, in which Kiev will renew its bid to become a full partner.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive launched a little over a month ago for recover the territories controlled by the russians in the south and east of the country It advances at a slow pace, in the face of resistance generated by the strong defenses built by the Kremlin forces and the need for ammunition, artillery and combat aircraft that Ukraine demands.
“We are waiting to see the main thrust of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which I hope will take place later, between September and November” Jessica Genauer
According to the last part of the Institute for the Study of Wara Washington-based think tank that monitors what is happening on the ground every day, the big bouts take place at four points of the extensive front, including the Bakhmut area, the scene of the bloodiest battle since the war began on February 24, 2022.
“We are still waiting to see the main thrust of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which I hope will take place later, between September and November. Currently, the fRussian forces still control about 15% of Ukrainian territory“, said Télam JJessica Genauer, Professor of International Relations at Flinders University (Australia).
“Ukraine hopes to recapture a significant part of that territory before the winter comes, around November this year,” he added.
Photo: AFP.
“The offense is not fast, that’s a fact.”recognized the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, that it continues to press Western powers to supply it with long-range weapons and US F-16 fighter jets.
“Without long-range weapons, it’s difficult to not only carry out offensive missions, but also, to be honest, defensive operations,” he explained.
This strategy in weapons delivery will be one of the axes of the important NATO summit to be held in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, on July 11 and 12.
Another central issue on the agenda is the Ukraine’s request to become a full member of the military alliancesubject on which Zelenski managed to garner support in the mini tour that he carried out these days in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Turkey.
“There is no doubt that Ukraine deserves to be a member of NATO“, He said Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoganwhich, on the other hand, blocks Sweden’s entry into the military alliance.
Despite this support, which is also reflected in the creation of the NATO-Ukraine Council, USA was decisive when affirming yesterday that the proposal of Ukraine’s entry into the group will be discussedbut it will not be decided at this summit.
In the background are the warnings from Moscow, made since 2008 at a NATO meeting in Romania, which a Ukrainian accession is seen as a direct threat to Russian territory.
In this sense, the Kremlin reiterated this week that kyiv seeks to involve “more countries” in the conflict by insisting on joining the military alliance.
“The Kiev regime is doing everything possible to drag (…) more countries into this conflict. Many have already fallen into this conflict, directly or indirectly,” Russian Presidency spokesman Dmitri Peskov said this week.
In that same framework, Russia condemned this Saturday the decision of the United States to send to Ukraine cluster Bombs, something that some of Washington’s allies such as the United Kingdom, Spain and Canada, signatories to the international convention that prohibits this type of weapon, also rejected more explicitly or tacitly.
“The Joe Biden administration’s decision to supply the Kiev regime with cluster munitions is another flagrant manifestation of the US’s aggressive anti-Russian course, aimed at prolonging the conflict in Ukraine,” the statement said. Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova.
Russia condemned the US decision to send cluster bombs to Ukraine / Photo: AFP.
In this context of high tension and a broken diplomatic dialogue For more than a year, the options for a ceasefire have not even been analyzed today, despite the proposals that have recently emerged from actors not directly involved in the conflict such as Brazil, China or the African Union.
“It is highly unlikely that we will see any kind of negotiated end to the conflict before the end of 2023. Depending on the extent of Ukraine’s achievements in the coming months in counter-offensive operations, and the continued readiness of Ukraine’s Western partners to supplying arms and military aid to Ukraine, we could see the conflict continue in 2024,” Genauer said.
“There is no doubt that the end of the conflict is still far away. Neither party is willing to negotiate their territorial claims” Alexander Hill
And he remembered: “Given the presidential elections in the United States, Ukraine and Russia in 2024we could see political changes in any of these countries that could affect the duration of the conflict”.
In the same vein, he pronounced Alexander Hill, Professor of Military History at the University of Calgary (Canada): “There is no doubt that the end of the conflict is still far away. Neither side is willing to negotiate their territorial claims.”
“The part ukrainian insists -among other things- in which Russia relinquishes all territory seized since 2014something that Moscow is unlikely to ever accept, and in particular with regard to Crimea,” he told this agency.
It is that Ukraine, emboldened by its resistance and the support of Western powers, proclaims its intention to recover not only the territories seized by Moscow since the start of the large-scale invasion in 2022, but also the Crimean peninsula and the breakaway regions. under Russian control since 2014.
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