The war in Ukraine
Turkey’s Defense Minister Blut Chebushulu, whose country hosted the round of talks between Russia and Ukraine today (Tuesday), declared tonight that the progress made in this round is the most significant recorded so far. In a conversation with reporters in Istanbul, Chebushulu welcomed the compromises and understandings reached by the parties on certain matters, declaring that the war must end as soon as possible. It also acknowledged that there were “difficult issues” to be discussed by the parties at a later date, saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zalansky could meet later.
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At the end of the round of talks held in Istanbul today, Russia announced that it had decided to significantly reduce its military activity around Kyiv and around the Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, which has been subjected to heavy shelling in recent weeks. Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Pomin said the reduction of activity was intended to serve as a confidence-building step and create appropriate conditions for further negotiations and the achievement of the ultimate goal – signing an agreement.
Alongside the Russian statement, it should be noted that it comes at a time when the Russian army is already stuck and unable to advance towards Kyiv, and according to reports in recent days it has suffered casualties in the capital area and was repulsed from the city of Irpin. In any case, the Ukrainian military reported that it had indeed detected Russian withdrawals around Kyiv and Chernihiv, and this afternoon CNN reported that according to a U.S. military source, the U.S. also sees a withdrawal of some Russian forces from the capital area.
The details provided today by representatives of Ukraine and Russia to negotiate their proposals in the course of the talks were the most extensive they have revealed so far. The Ukrainian side announced that in the round of talks today, Ukraine has agreed to accept the status of a militarily neutral state, ie not to join NATO as it has done for years, not to join other regional military alliances and not to host foreign military bases in its territory. It will receive security guarantees, and the Reuters agency has reported that they will include guarantees similar to Article 5 of the NATO Convention, which stipulates that Allies will consider any attack on one of them an attack on the entire Alliance. The operation of this section may mean sending military forces from across the United States to assist the country attacked in its war.
According to Reuters, the Ukrainians said that three of the countries that could give Kiev such guarantees are Israel, Turkey and Canada, but did not specify what exactly their contribution to Ukraine would be in the event of the realization of the guarantee. Under the proposal, other guarantees could be obtained from the US, UK, Germany, Italy and Russia itself. One of the things Kiev is demanding in return for the concessions it has offered is that Russia remove all its opposition to Ukraine joining the EU.
According to the Ukrainians, in today’s talks they also proposed a 15-year “consultation period” in which the status of the Crimean peninsula, the one Russia invaded and annexed by Ukraine in 2014, will be discussed in 2014. The fate of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine Greater than him, will for the time being be set aside and will be discussed later between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine. Either way, according to the Ukrainian proposal any such agreement will have to get approval in a referendum in Ukraine.
The head of the Russian negotiating team, Vladimir Medinsky, said in response that the proposals would be forwarded to Putin and examined, after which Russia would respond. Madinsky, meanwhile, stressed that the promise to reduce military activity around Kyiv is not a declaration of a ceasefire, and that there is still a long way to go until a comprehensive agreement is reached on Ukraine.
The Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, who serves as an unofficial envoy in talks with Ukraine, also arrived in Istanbul today. Just yesterday it was revealed that Abramovich, who has been considered close to Putin for years, suffered symptoms of poisoning earlier this month after a negotiation meeting in which he attended Kiev. Two Ukrainian representatives who attended the meeting also experienced the symptoms – including redness and tears in the eyes and peeling of the skin of the hands and face – and it is suspected that extremists in Moscow are responsible for the poisoning, if it did occur.
The British “Guardian” reported yesterday that following the alleged poisoning, Abramovich even lost his sight for several hours. In the hours before the onset of symptoms, Abramovich and the two Ukrainians consumed only water and chocolate. An American source claimed last night that from the intelligence in the possession of the USA, it appears with a high probability that the three were not actually poisoned, certainly not with a chemical substance as independent investigators who investigated the affair claimed, but were harmed by some “environmental factor”.