2024-06-26 19:50:46
On the finish of the yr, we’re ready for a brand new inspection, then we could have lined the inflation criterion
Bulgaria turned out to be a wonderful nation among the many international locations that ought to undertake the euro, however excessive costs delayed its introduction in our nation.
On Wednesday, the European Central Financial institution (ECB) and the EC introduced their studies assessing international locations’ progress in direction of the eurozone. Along with Bulgaria, these are the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden. The studies state that our nation is essentially the most superior of all and
meets all standards besides that of worth stability
For the remaining, such because the funds deficit, it’s said that in 2023 it was 1.9% with an allowable 3%, and the ratio of debt to GDP was 23.1% – considerably beneath the brink of 60%. In accordance with this indicator, we even have the second lowest debt within the EU. Relating to the change fee dynamics criterion, it’s stated to be mounted due to the forex board and has not proven any deviation throughout the reference interval.
Below eurozone guidelines, inflation is calculated relative to that of the three best-performing international locations over the previous 12 months, including 1.5 factors. These are Denmark (1.1%), Belgium (1.9%) and the Netherlands (2.5%).
The Bulgarian authorities will proceed to work actively for the success of all the standards for membership within the Eurozone, in addition to to enhance the enterprise surroundings and the institutional framework to attain sustainable rapprochement with the Eurozone, the ECB and EC paperwork additionally state.
The federal government expects Bulgaria to satisfy all the standards for getting into the Eurozone by the top of the yr, Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev stated on Wednesday earlier than the beginning of the cupboard assembly.
“After that, we’ll ask for extraordinary convergent studies from the European Central Financial institution and the European Fee and we can present our readiness for accession, which is able to occur within the shortest attainable time,” Glavchev is satisfied.
He boasted that on Wednesday the ministers additionally adopted the Regulation on the introduction of the euro in Bulgaria. This was the sensible preparation, and the prime minister hoped that the deputies would undertake the regulation as quickly as attainable. She would
to supply predictability for individuals,
enterprise and the administration for the euro introduction mechanism.
The regulation stipulates that from the date of introduction of the euro, all accounts will probably be transformed robotically and freed from cost. Cost of salaries, pensions, advantages, money and social advantages will probably be made in euros solely.
Within the first month of the adoption of the euro forex, individuals may also be capable of pay in BGN. Retailers will return change in Euros except they’ve adequate inventory. After that, the lev will stop to be a way of fee. The costs of products and providers will probably be indicated concurrently in BGN and EUR for as much as 12 months.
From the day the brand new forex is launched, it is going to be attainable to withdraw cash from accounts solely in euros, no matter whether or not it’s from an ATM or a financial institution workplace.
The change of levs into euros will probably be carried out on the BNB and different banks. It is going to be free for the primary 6 months, then there will probably be a payment. The central financial institution will change a limiteless quantity of euro banknotes and cash freed from cost.
Inflation is a problem not just for us, but in addition for others – it’s above the reference worth within the different evaluated international locations as nicely. The primary motive for the weaker-than-expected financial progress for everybody is the struggle in Ukraine.
Due to it, there was a big weakening of financial exercise and a speedy improve in inflation. It’s no shock to seek out that the international locations with larger vitality dependence and stronger commerce ties with Russia are essentially the most affected.
All international locations of the group, together with Bulgaria, stay with
weak rankings of presidency and financial establishments in comparison with these of the euro space.
The ECB report states that Bulgaria could have an issue with the economic system if it continues with the insurance policies of preemptive improve in incomes, commented the economist Lyubomir Datsov.
Nonetheless, the economist Georgi Ganev observed a divergence between the ECB and the EC for the primary time in historical past. The 2 establishments submitted a distinct reference worth for inflation. In accordance with the EC for Could 2024 it’s 4.1%, whereas in line with the ECB it’s 3.3%.
Milen Velchev, former finance minister: Let’s hope we keep centered on the issue and ask for a second report
There is no such thing as a shock within the studies. Let’s hope that the caretaker cupboard or a brand new common authorities will probably be centered sufficient on this situation in order that we do not miss our likelihood to ask for a second report in direction of the top of this yr. We nonetheless have probabilities for mid-2025.
Vladislav Goranov, former finance minister: Flawed fiscal coverage, however I am nonetheless optimistic
The excellent news is that there are not any surprises within the findings within the convergence studies of the ECB and the EC. Sadly, the misguided fiscal coverage of latest years has predictably posed challenges to cost stability. I’m optimistic that the possibilities of becoming a member of quickly, why not in 2025, are attainable. This is among the finest issues that might fairly occur to us macroeconomically.
Dimitar Radev, governor of the BNB: 2025 stays a risk
Bulgaria’s admission to the Eurozone in 2005 stays a risk, however offered that there’s a pro-European authorities with sufficiently broad assist and a horizon of motion. This was said by BNB Governor Dimitar Radev in an interview for BTA.
He factors out that, in comparison with the opposite evaluated international locations, Bulgaria is in essentially the most superior stage of preparation for membership. And in an effort to meet the inflation criterion, it’s mandatory to manage the fiscal growth. This meant that the funds deficit can be diminished by about 1% of GDP. Thus, by the top of the yr, Bulgaria was in a position to cowl the inflation criterion for the euro. Radev is happy with the analysis of the ECB and the EC for the great cooperation with the BNB.