2024-07-14 13:34:55
A UN study has found that the world population will peak at about 10.3 billion in 2084, 60 years from now, and then decline. While China’s population decreased last year, giving up its place as the world’s largest to India, the U.S. population is expected to increase by the end of this century due to immigration and other factors. The population of Africa south of the Sahara Desert is expected to continue to increase, approaching one-third of the world’s population by 2100.
According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the United Nations announced on the 11th (local time) in a population estimate report released every two years that “the world population will peak at 10.29 billion in 2084 and then decline to 10.18 billion in 2100.” The current world population is 8.09 billion as of July last year.
The WSJ explained, “The world’s population growth rate is slower than previously estimated, and the population at the peak will be smaller than initially thought.” Li Junhua, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs at the United Nations, told the Financial Times, “The demographic environment has changed significantly,” and “some countries have lower fertility rates than previously expected, and some high-fertility regions are seeing faster declines in fertility.”
China’s population was 1.42 billion last year, giving up the top spot to India (1.44 billion). On the other hand, the U.S. population is expected to increase by the end of this century, with an estimated 343.5 million last year. Bloomberg News explained that immigration will be the main driving force behind population growth in the U.S., Canada, and Australia.
Africa’s population growth is remarkable. By 2100, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to approach one-third of the world’s population. This is due to the relatively slow growth of the populations of Asia and the Americas. In particular, nine countries, including Angola and the Central Asian Republic, are expected to have their populations double in the next 30 years.
The world fertility rate was 2.25 last year. The UN forecasts that in more and more countries, fertility rates will fall below the replacement rate (the fertility rate needed to maintain the size of society) of 2.1. The WSJ interpreted this as “a significant milestone, as last year’s fertility rate nearly matched the replacement rate for the first time ever.” About one-fifth of the countries surveyed, including Korea, China, Italy, and Spain, had fertility rates of less than 1.4 per woman.
Paris = Correspondent Jo Eun-ah [email protected]
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2024-07-14 13:34:55