2024-09-02 22:00:15
The fall in the wheat harvest in France, the leading producer and exporter of wheat in the European Union, is offset this time by good harvest expectations elsewhere in the world. Prices, at their lowest for four years, testify to “ peace of mind » which prevails, for the time, on the market.
With production at its lowest level in 40 years, France will export this year – outside the EU – 60% less wheat, or just over 4 million tons. But the news is good elsewhere.
In Europe, washing is limited thanks to the best harvests in Romania and Bulgaria. It is also thanks to other good levels obtained in Spain, Italy and the Baltic countries, according to Argus Media – formerly Agritel – an analysis and consulting firm specializing in agricultural markets.
Concerns about Russian production are now divided: despite the climate risks, the country can return to export levels close to those of the last two years.
Well, even very good harvests were also announced in the United States, Canada, Kazakhstan, Australia and Argentina, big exporters who, with these prospects, can balance the balance.
Read againRussian wheat, a point of “attention” in grain products
Uncertainty about demand
What can shake the market is therefore not much supply, which is certain for the time, even if it could fall by 3 million tons worldwide, according to Argus Media, but global demand. From a structural point of view, it increases, but from one campaign to another, it can change a lot in the purchasing countries.
This year, for example, China’s needs are estimated at 11 million tons of wheat – 2.5 million less than last year. But the country is currently buying so little that some are questioning its true intentions. The same goes for India, which is not on the market.
Demand from three major buyers of Russian wheat could fall by 5 million tons this year, according to Maxence Devillers, market analyst at Argus Media. These are Pakistan – due to a good harvest – Bangladesh – due to economic problems – and Turkey, which banned wheat exports.
Prices are unlikely to rise
At the same time, in the coming months we will have to reckon with a very strong demand from North Africa, especially from Morocco. In addition to losing half of its harvest due to drought, the country has very limited products, after three difficult seasons. According to Gautier le Molgat, CEO of Argus Media France, the Maghreb can produce a record 19 million tons, an increase of 2.4 million tons over a year.
This table argues for a market that can balance itself, and for the price which should be at the level of that observed in recent weeks, i.e. the lowest in four years.
Until today, there is no concern about the supply of North African countries, large consumers of bread, and other African imports. The main change will come from the origin, with less French wheat on the tables of consumers, and perhaps more Russian, American or Argentine wheat.
To listenFrance: “The current wheat harvest is the lowest since 1983”
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