When will China lift entry restrictions and open up like the rest of the world?
At the earliest in September next year. Only 57 percent of Chinese have a booster vaccination. Until the population is vaccinated, China cannot open because it would lead to a medical catastrophe. I hope that a vaccination campaign will start after the party congress. In business, the pain threshold has been reached.
Why didn’t China introduce compulsory vaccination long ago? The state locks people up in their apartments for months. Does Xi Jinping want to isolate the country?
Certainly there are sections in the Communist Party that would like to see the country increasingly resemble the late Ming Dynasty as a result of detachment. But there are also decision-makers in China who know what an economic downturn means. The US chip sanctions are affecting the economy, as is the partnership with Russia. The state cannot get the real estate crisis under control. The country is experiencing the perfect storm. It needs good news about a long-term exit strategy from zero Covid. The negative mood among the population has not gone unnoticed by the cadres in Beijing either.
But what gets through to Xi?
I think it gets through to him that people are dissatisfied. The question is whether he wants to change his policy. He has moved a bit away from Russia. However, last year he declared victory over the pandemic. But right now, victory can be seen everywhere in the world, just not in China. A departure from zero-Covid would therefore be politically sensitive before the party congress.
Given this impasse, will China still overtake the US as the largest economy?
Certainly not. You can already see that the Chinese economy is growing more slowly than America this year. China is at risk of falling into the “middle-income trap”.
It was always said that the party secured its power by promising people prosperity. So why isn’t there a popular uprising now?
On the one hand, this is due to the surveillance state and, on the other hand, to the propaganda that paints everything beautifully. Very few Chinese know that life abroad has long since returned to normal. That doesn’t mean, however, that there are enough people at the top of ministries and companies who have understood that it’s time for a change of course.
Wasn’t the impression that China was a business-friendly country always an illusion?
Of course, stability has always been a priority for the party, as seen in the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. Xi Jinping is not an industrial accident in history. The man was brought in to ensure order. However, it was not foreseeable that he would become a dictator. Under Deng Xiaoping, the motto was that people should get rich. There was a total change under Xi. China is now acting more robustly towards other countries, and the Chinese should all earn the same. As a result, some who drove the economy forward, like Alibaba founder Jack Ma, are being pruned. The country has definitely become more communist in the last 10 years. So far, however, only states with democratic structures have managed to become rich industrialized countries.
After a lot of back and forth, Xi Jinping now wants to receive Olaf Scholz and German CEOs in Beijing. What does China expect from this?
Before the G-20 summit in Bali, Beijing wants to say to the world and to its own people: Look, we’re not that isolated after all. A German chancellor is just what you need. But he can come with three planes full of CEOs, which doesn’t change the fact that China is now being discussed as a risk in German corporate headquarters.
Jörg Wuttke
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Bild: Picture Alliance
Because a Chinese attack on Taiwan could result in mass unemployment in Wolfsburg and Stuttgart if there are no profits from the largest sales market?
Semiconductor production would collapse if Taiwan were attacked. The whole world would be affected, not just Wolfsburg. If war were to break out between China and the USA, a few unemployed people in Germany would no longer be noticed.
Nevertheless, because of the danger of war, at least the Greens in the federal government want to limit business with China. What does that mean for German companies?
I hope that pragmatism will prevail and you will see how high the dependency really is. It is significant for twenty goods such as rare earths and pharmaceutical precursors. The rest is replaceable, but that will be expensive. Talking about alternatives to Chinese products is not the right time.
What should Scholz say to Xi Jinping then?
Germany must make clear how we perceive China’s attitude towards Russia and Ukraine. The fact that someone in Moscow is playing with the nuclear carriers is not good, nor is the human rights situation in Xinjiang.
Company bosses usually do not have a critical word about Xinjiang.
I can understand that and I don’t blame the CEOs for it. China has a history of corporate reprisals. Instead, the associations must raise their voices.
You criticize China like no other business leader in the country. Why aren’t you in jail yet?
The FAZ is not delivered there (laughs). Seriously, I rather believe that in the Xi court I play the role of the fool who initiates a discussion that is wanted by the State Council and other decision-makers. It is necessary to be clear: that turning away from China serves nobody.