Putin Seeks to Legitimize Regime Change in Ukraine Amidst SCO Summit
Beijing, China – Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to bolster his narrative regarding the war in Ukraine, leveraging the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in China as a platform. Despite characterizing recent negotiations as “very productive,” European leaders and experts remain skeptical of Putin’s willingness to genuinely end the conflict. The SCO, founded in 2001, comprises China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Belarus, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, and this year’s summit convenes leaders from 20 nations, many of which are authoritarian regimes with considerably lower living standards than G7 nations. India stands as the sole formally democratic state within the group.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe the Kremlin strategically timed the release of an appeal from former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to coincide with Putin’s remarks at the SCO summit. This move, according to ISW, aims to legitimize Putin’s push for regime change in Ukraine. Yanukovych, in a video message, claimed he had been working toward Ukraine’s rapprochement with the European Union, stating EU entry was his ultimate objective. However, he also leveled accusations against EU partners, citing “incorrect” behavior during negotiations and criticizing their perceived misunderstanding of Ukraine’s economic challenges.
ISW noted the exact filming date of Yanukovych’s video remains unknown. However, his opening statement, declaring Putin “absolutely right,” likely served as a direct response to Putin’s statements about Ukraine at the SCO summit, indicating a potentially pre-planned information operation.”The publication of Yanukovych’s video in the Russian state media was probably intentionally dedicated to Putin’s statements,” ISW stated. “The Kremlin may create conditions to say that Yanukovych is the legal leader of Ukraine, and not the president of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky.” ISW countered these claims, asserting that Yanukovych fled Ukraine after the Revolution of Dignity and that Ukraine has as held several democratic elections, rendering the notion of Yanukovych as Ukraine’s legal leader unfounded.
The War’s Timeline and International Response
Why did the war start? The conflict began in February 2014, initially focused on the Crimean Peninsula and the Donbas region of Ukraine, escalating to a full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. Russia’s stated goals have shifted over time, initially focusing on “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine, and now centering on territorial control and regime change.
Who are the key players? The primary belligerents are the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Key international actors include the united States, providing significant military and financial aid to Ukraine; the european Union, imposing sanctions on Russia and offering humanitarian assistance; and China, maintaining a neutral stance while engaging in economic ties with both countries.
How did it end? as of November 2023, the war has not ended. Negotiations have stalled,and fighting continues along the front lines.What is the current status? A recent meeting between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin took place at Elmendorf Richardson under Anchorij in Alaska. The meeting was reportedly shorter than planned, with a planned dinner canceled and no agreements reached on a ceasefire or peace. The Council of Europe is establishing a special tribunal to prosecute senior Russian officials for the crime of aggression against Ukraine.
