TEHRAN – Former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has argued that the international order has fundamentally shifted, moving beyond traditional bipolar or multipolar frameworks into what he terms a “post-polar” phase. This new era, he contends, is characterized by fragmented power across military, economic and technological spheres, rendering reliance on the loyalty of major global powers increasingly unrealistic. Zarif’s assessment, shared at the unveiling of his new book “The World Ahead: Discourses on the Global Order,” reflects a growing skepticism about the dependability of international alliances and support, particularly for nations facing significant pressure.
Zarif illustrated his point with examples from recent international events, specifically citing the situations in Venezuela and, referencing a conflict involving Iran, the lack of substantial support received during a period of heightened tension. He noted that Venezuela, despite its geopolitical importance, did not receive meaningful assistance from either China or Russia when facing internal and external challenges. This, he argued, demonstrates a departure from historical patterns of great power backing for allies. The former foreign minister also pointed to a recent, unspecified war involving Iran and a coalition led by the United States and Israel, stating that expectations of significant sacrifice or support from major powers were unmet. This experience, he suggests, underscored the limitations of relying on traditional notions of international solidarity.
The Rise of a “Post-Polar” World
Zarif’s concept of a “post-polar” world challenges conventional understandings of global power dynamics. Traditionally, international relations have been analyzed through the lens of bipolarity – exemplified by the Cold War rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union – or multipolarity, where several major powers exert influence. Zarif’s analysis suggests that power is now more diffuse, residing not only in states but also in non-state actors and across various domains like technology and economics. This fragmentation, he believes, makes predicting and securing reliable support far more complex.
He further supported his argument by referencing shifts within established alliances like NATO and transatlantic relations, as well as specific policy decisions made by the United States. He cited the US position on Ukraine and former President Donald Trump’s controversial remarks regarding Greenland as evidence of a changing global landscape where established norms and commitments are increasingly questioned. These examples, according to Zarif, highlight a broader trend of unpredictability and self-interest in international affairs.
Venezuela and Iran: Case Studies in Shifting Loyalties
The examples of Venezuela and Iran are central to Zarif’s argument about the erosion of international loyalty. Venezuela has faced significant economic and political turmoil in recent years, including US sanctions and a humanitarian crisis. While both China and Russia have maintained economic ties with Venezuela, they have not intervened militarily or provided the level of support that might have been expected in a traditional alliance. According to Reuters, China and Russia have largely focused on protecting their own economic interests in Venezuela, rather than offering unconditional support to the Maduro government. Reuters
Zarif’s reference to a war involving Iran and a US-Israeli coalition is less specific. While details of the conflict are not explicitly outlined in the provided source material, the implication is that Iran experienced a similar lack of robust support from other major powers during a period of military confrontation. Mohammad Javad Zarif served as Iran’s Foreign Minister from 2013 to 2021, a period that included heightened tensions with the United States and Israel, particularly surrounding Iran’s nuclear program. Wikipedia provides a detailed overview of his career and the geopolitical context of his tenure.
The Danger of Outdated Thinking
Zarif warned against clinging to outdated, bloc-based views of the world, arguing that such thinking leads to flawed analysis and the proliferation of conspiracy theories. He emphasized the need for Iran and other countries to adopt a new understanding of the international system to better anticipate global trends and protect their national interests. This requires, he suggests, a more nuanced and realistic assessment of power dynamics, recognizing that alliances are often conditional and self-serving.
Zarif, who currently serves as an advisor to the President of Iran and head of the Center for Strategic Studies, released his book, “The World Ahead,” with the cooperation of several thinkers, according to Iran Book News Agency (IBNA). Printed in Iran reported on the book’s release, highlighting Zarif’s intention to explain his views on the post-bipolar world.
As Iran navigates an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape, Zarif’s analysis offers a critical perspective on the limitations of traditional diplomacy and the need for a more pragmatic approach to international relations. The next key development to watch will be the ongoing implementation of Iran’s strategic policies under the current administration of President Masoud Pezeshkian, and how they reflect this evolving understanding of the global order.
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