Zimbabwe, Guyana, Madagascar, the United Kingdom, and Zambia have joined an international aviation alliance to expand carbon credit supplies for CORSIA, a global emissions program set to become mandatory in 2027 amid forecasts of a sharp market deficit.
The global aviation sector faces an escalating race to secure compliance credits as mandatory enforcement approaches. Membership in the Supporting Alliance for CORSIA Eligible Emissions Unit (EEU) Supply has reached 50 entities, bolstered by the formal accession of five national governments according to the International Air Transport Association. The initiative aims to align national climate policies with the strict demands of international aviation.
The Aviation Carbon Market Compact and New Government Signatories
The newly expanded coalition took shape when the governments of Zimbabwe, Zambia, Madagascar, the United Kingdom, and Guyana formally signed the Aviation Carbon Market Compact. Peru has also expressed interest in joining the framework. By signing the compact, these nations committed to establishing the necessary regulatory mechanisms to supply carbon emissions units eligible for trading under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA).
CORSIA is a global market-based mechanism developed by the United Nations’ International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). While participation becomes mandatory for most countries in 2027, the framework requires participating nations to manage the complex interface between their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the rigorous procedures required to authorize carbon credits for aviation use as noted by regional reporting. The compact offers a structured pathway to deepen access to technical assistance and international climate finance.
Value Chain Support and Industry Partners
The alliance extends far beyond national governments, drawing technical and financial backing from across the carbon market ecosystem. Prominent organizations joining the effort include the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA), the Verified Carbon Market Collaborative—represented by the High Tide Foundation’s Carbon Policy and Markets Initiative—data partner Sylvera, and aerospace manufacturer Airbus according to regional coverage.
A broad spectrum of commercial airlines and industry bodies also participates in the alliance, including Air France-KLM, All Nippon Airways, International Airlines Group, Lufthansa Group, Qatar Airways, Singapore Airlines, and the Arab Air Carriers’ Organization. Industry leaders emphasized the cooperative nature of the undertaking.
“The engagement of the governments of Guyana, Madagascar, the United Kingdom, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, as well as the support provided by our partners from across the entire carbon market value chain, shows strong and shared commitment to strengthening the link between market demand and the policy frameworks.”
Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist
Projecting Demand and Navigating the Supply Pipeline
Behind the political expansion lies a looming arithmetic problem. Industry forecasts project that demand for CORSIA-eligible emissions units will reach between 225 million and 250 million units by spring 2027. By 2028, airlines will need to purchase approximately 200 million EEUs valued at up to US$ 5 billion. As air travel expands alongside global GDP, annual requirements are expected to surge past 2 billion units over the coming decade.
Market analysts note that the debate over carbon supply often stems from looking at different stages of a multi-tiered pipeline rather than a single figure. Theoretical supply under approved methodologies exceeds 800 million tonnes, but that potential contrasts sharply with compliance-ready credits reported Fastmarkets analysts. Current tagged supply stands at roughly 38 million EEUs carrying Phase 1 labels, while cumulative CP1-eligible issuance is projected to reach approximately 107 million tCO2e by the end of 2027.
| Supply Category | What It Means | Current Reference Point |
|---|---|---|
| Theoretical supply | Potential volumes under approved CORSIA methodologies | 800+ million tCO2e* |
| Forecast Phase 1 issuance | Base-case cumulative CP1-eligible issuance by end-2027 | ~107 million tCO2e |
| Deliverable supply | Credits expected to complete authorization and tagging in time | Uncertain; depends on registry processes |
| Tagged supply | Credits already carrying CP1 labels | ~38 million EEUs |
Economic Stakes for African Nations and Global Markets
For developing economies, the financial stakes are direct. IATA estimates that Africa alone holds the potential to supply up to 57.6 million EEUs, highlighting substantial economic benefits that governments risk foregoing if their regulatory infrastructure is not prepared as outlined in trade analyses. At the same time, spot credit prices have experienced downward pressure, with Fastmarkets assessing CP1 spot credits at $9.50 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent in late June, down from more than $20.00 per tCO2e in late 2025.
The Supporting Alliance intends to bridge this gap by pooling targeted expertise, providing implementation assistance, and ensuring that high-integrity compliance credits reach the market before statutory deadlines take full effect.
“With CORSIA now coming into force, the global community has an unprecedented opportunity to channel capital toward impactful climate action.”
Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist
What Lies Ahead for Compliance Implementation
As the spring 2027 target approaches, the alliance plans to maintain continuous engagement among member states, sharing progress updates and identifying new opportunities for participation. The immediate operational challenge involves converting theoretical project pipelines into authorized, compliance-ready units through transparent registry systems.
Whether host countries can accelerate authorization procedures fast enough to avert a structural shortfall remains the central test for the initiative. For airlines facing mandatory offsets and developing nations seeking climate finance, the coming months will determine whether the newly expanded coalition can successfully mobilize supply at the required speed and scale.
