2023-11-16 12:20:53
Tadevos Avetisyan, a member of the National Assembly “Armenia” faction, wrote:
“Next year, the revenues of the state budget are planned to be 2.67 trillion drams or 25.5 percent of the GDP, and the total expenses are 3.017 trillion drams. The public debt/GDP ratio is set at 48.4 percent, which does not take into account the risks of devaluation of the national currency, as well as ensuring the predicted high economic growth.
At the basis of these pleasant promises is the forecast of 7 percent GDP growth. In terms of the realism of the latter, the forecasts of international financial and economic organizations are characteristic, which do not exceed 5 percent, as well as another objective circumstance, according to which the factors that ensured high economic and price growth in the previous two years are weakening and will stop at a moment, causing additional economic growth. significant difficulties. We are talking about the external, random, short-term factors caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war, which, in fact, led to a rapid increase in the short-term demand of our country’s economy, high economic growth with a high inflation background.
The structure of the economy and the potential for long-term growth do not change significantly. Moreover, the deteriorating security and foreign geopolitical environment deepens the economic security and investment risks and their already concrete manifestations: Turkey fires and suspends foreign investments in Yeraskh, and for the same reason, the operation of the Zod open mine has been stopped.
Under the guise of ensuring macroeconomic balance, contradictory policies related to sustainable economic growth are implemented. In particular, under the influence of above-mentioned random external factors and inefficient government spending, domestic total demand increases, which leads to demand-driven short-term economic growth and leads to high inflationary pressures. The central bank is forced to regularly raise the refinancing rate in order to prevent high inflation and discourage (penalize) the supply of the real sector of the economy, which is already in free fall. This is especially true of the export sectors, industry and agriculture.
The next official manipulation, which has a continuous and exposed nature: every time they present the draft of the state budget, they write on paper and say that they will dramatically increase the capital expenditures aimed at long-term development. And they do this in order to cover up their unfulfilled promises of poverty benefits, pensions, and raising the minimum wage.
Capital costs do not have an individual recipient, as, for example, social costs do. Therefore, one can endlessly promise and then not fulfill, without taking responsibility. Then, those expenses are constantly and significantly redistributed and are carried out with significant deviations from the previously approved. For example, the asphalting works are increased with funds intended for reservoirs and social infrastructures. By the way, all this is interestingly combined with electoral processes. Other issues are the efficiency and quality of these expenses, the rapid growth of purchases from one person and the participation of their own in this area, super profits. Their legal assessments will be given later.
In particular, it is planned for 2024. a 27 percent increase in state budget capital expenditures, around 700 billion drams or 6.6 percent of GDP. By the way, in 2023 In January-October, 51.5 percent of the total capital expenditures were not fulfilled, that is, only 273.6 billion drams were spent out of the 564.7 billion drams specified in the state budget during the reporting period. During the year, capital expenditures are constantly and significantly redistributed to “blow up” and have a high performance against the specified budget.
755 billion drams or 7 percent of the GDP will be allocated to the social protection sector, almost as much as capital expenditures.
In particular, the funds planned for the support program for disadvantaged social groups will be reduced by 10 percent, amounting to around 30 billion drams. And this is when this government promised to eliminate extreme poverty, to reduce poverty by half. And in fact, the average monthly amount of poverty allowance for one family is 32,000 drams, even less than the value of the minimum consumer basket for one person (75,300 drams) about 2.5 times less.
Funds allocated to employment support programs are reduced 3 times, amounting to only 638 million drams. And this is the case when tens of thousands of our compatriots who were forcibly displaced from Artsakh and lost their source of stable income added to the unemployed.
326 billion drams will be allocated to pension security. The increase of only 5 percent is due to the payment of pensions to our compatriots forcibly displaced from Artsakh. Pensions, minimum wages for poverty benefits will not increase, despite the projected inflation.
They promised that the average amount of the pension should exceed the value of the minimum consumer basket. By the way, the minimum amount of pension is 36,000 drams, 2.1 times less than the value of the minimum consumer basket, the average monthly amount is 49,600 drams or 52 percent less. Obviously, they will not fulfill this promise either. By observing the basic rule of ensuring macroeconomic stability, it is impossible to ensure an annual increase of 30 percent in average pensions in the next two years, even in the event of an incredibly high 7 percent annual GDP growth.
Under this government, which promised to abolish the cumulative pension system, that system became irreversible. Each year, allocations increase significantly, at the expense of increasing the current pensions. For example, next year, 27 percent more money will be allocated to the cumulative pension system, about 145 billion drams, or half of the funds allocated to the labor pension.
The project provides only 10 billion drams for the social support of our compatriots forcibly displaced from the Republic of Artsakh, and in addition, about 30 billion drams for pension security. And this is the case when the funds allocated to Artsakh in previous years were 144 billion drams per year, and our compatriots who were forcibly displaced lost all the foundations of material security, from housing to stable income.
Now I will present the highlighted problems and uncertainties of the reintegration of our compatriots who were forcibly displaced from Artsakh in Armenia, why not also the recorded failures.
First about the failure. the well-known program of housing security certificates does not provide adequate support arising from the goal, does not solve the problem of this program support, therefore, the funds spent are not effective. And this is documented by those responsible for the day.
Instead of programmatic support commensurate with the situation and objective needs, the authorities of the day make sweet-tongued promises. “We think, we value, we discuss, we develop, we will do, etc.”
The reality is completely different.
Contradictory statements and uncertainty. in response to the opposition MPs’ questions, the head of the government says that the Artsakh Armenians can enjoy the rights of RA social support, including receiving a pension, if they apply for and receive RA citizenship. Today, from the NA podium, the person in charge of the field of migration announces that even in the status of refugees, our compatriots from Artsakh have equal social rights to RA citizens.
About urgent financial support: as a result of the uncertainty of procedures and unnecessary restrictions, thousands of our compatriots do not receive the one-time and monthly urgent support of 100,000 drams, or even their monthly pensions.
Summarizing, we record once again: At the base of the next year’s state budget draft is the obvious inconsistency with the objective situation and programmatic promises of the government of the day, unrealistic forecasts. Hopes are the continuation of the “miracle of economic growth” caused by external random factors.
The leadership is also the same: false promises of capital expenditures, distortions of the situation, continuation of populist and irresponsible behavior, exclusive interest in keeping one’s own power at all costs.
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