A Dangerous Year: Why 2026 Could See Global Conflict Escalate
The world faces a confluence of escalating conflicts and shifting geopolitical alliances, raising the specter of a new world order defined by autocracy and instability.
Veteran foreign correspondent John Simpson, who has reported from over 40 war zones since the 1960s, warns that 2025 has been the most worrying year of his long career. It’s not simply the number of active conflicts, but the realization that one – the war in Ukraine – carries geopolitical implications of an unprecedented scale. After decades observing global crises, Simpson expresses a grim conviction that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s warning of a potential world war may, unfortunately, prove accurate.
Undersea Cables and Shadow Wars
Nato governments are operating at heightened alert, particularly concerned about potential Russian sabotage of the undersea cables that underpin Western communication and commerce. Intelligence reports suggest Russian drones are actively probing Nato defenses, while Russian hackers are reportedly developing capabilities to disrupt critical infrastructure – ministries, emergency services, and major corporations. Western authorities are increasingly certain that Russia’s intelligence services are responsible for both the attempted murder of former Russian intelligence agent Sergei Skrypal in Salisbury in 2018, and the subsequent fatal poisoning of Dawn Sturgess, with the inquiry concluding the attack was authorized at the highest levels of the Russian government – implicating President Putin himself.
Three Wars, A World on Edge
The year 2025 has been marked by three distinct, yet interconnected, conflicts. In Ukraine, the United Nations reports 14,000 civilian deaths, a figure that underscores the brutal reality of the ongoing war. Simultaneously, the conflict in Gaza has seen a devastating toll, with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promising “mighty vengeance” after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack that killed approximately 1,200 Israelis and resulted in 251 hostages. Since then, over 70,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli military operations, including more than 30,000 women and children – figures considered reliable by the UN.
A third, often overlooked, conflict rages in Sudan, where a ferocious civil war between military factions has claimed over 150,000 lives and displaced approximately 12 million people. Simpson notes that had this been the sole major conflict of 2025, the international community might have been more focused on finding a resolution.
Trump’s Ceasefire and a Fragile Peace
US President Donald Trump recently brokered a ceasefire in Gaza, declaring, “I’m good at solving wars.” While the ceasefire has led to a reduction in casualties, Simpson cautions that the underlying issues remain unresolved, and a lasting peace feels distant. Despite the cessation of major hostilities, the situation remains deeply unstable.
Ukraine: A Conflict on a Different Level
Despite the horrific suffering in the Middle East, Simpson argues that the war in Ukraine represents a qualitatively different threat. Unlike the regional conflicts in Gaza and Sudan, the Ukraine war has the potential to escalate into a global confrontation, a scenario not seen since the Cold War. Most conflicts Simpson has covered over the years, including Vietnam, the first Gulf War, and the Kosovo War, while dangerous, never posed an existential threat to global peace. The great powers, wary of triggering a nuclear exchange, always maintained a degree of restraint.
As a stark reminder of that restraint, Simpson recalls a 1999 incident in Kosovo where a British General reportedly refused an order to seize an airfield from Russian troops, declaring over the radio, “I’m not going to start the Third World War for you.”
Russia’s Assertiveness and a Shifting Global Landscape
Looking ahead to 2026, Simpson warns that Russia, emboldened by what it perceives as a waning US interest in European security, appears prepared to aggressively pursue its geopolitical ambitions. President Putin recently stated that Russia has no plans to wage war against Europe, but remains “ready right now” if provoked. He added that respectful treatment of Russia’s interests would preclude any military operations.
However, Russia has already invaded an independent European nation, resulting in widespread death and destruction. Ukraine accuses Russia of kidnapping at least 20,000 children, and the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for President Putin in connection with these alleged crimes – a warrant Russia vehemently denies. Russia maintains its invasion was necessary to protect itself from Nato encroachment, but Putin has also signaled a desire to restore Russia’s sphere of influence in the region.
An Increasingly Isolationist America
A key factor in this shifting dynamic is the perceived unreliability of the United States. Simpson observes that 2025 has witnessed a growing possibility that an American president might abandon the post-World War II strategic system. Washington is increasingly questioning its commitment to protecting Europe and even expressing disapproval of the continent’s political direction. A recent Trump administration national security strategy report warned of a “stark prospect of civilisational erasure” for Europe – a sentiment welcomed by the Kremlin.
Inside Russia, Putin has effectively suppressed internal opposition to both himself and the war in Ukraine, according to UN reports. However, Russia faces economic challenges, including potential inflation, declining oil revenues, and increased VAT to fund the war effort.
Europe’s Vulnerability and America’s Retreat
Despite the combined economies of the EU and the UK being ten times larger than Russia’s, and a population exceeding three times its size, Western Europe has historically relied on American protection. This reluctance to fully invest in its own defense is now being exploited by Russia.
The United States, Simpson argues, is becoming less influential, more inward-looking, and fundamentally different from the nation he has reported on throughout his career. The current mood echoes the 1920s and 30s, with a renewed focus on national interests. Even if President Trump’s political influence wanes, his emphasis on isolationism may prove lasting, potentially leaving Europe vulnerable in 2028 and beyond. Putin is acutely aware of this shift.
The Looming Risks of 2026
The year 2026 promises to be pivotal. Zelensky may be compelled to accept a peace deal that cedes significant Ukrainian territory. The critical question is whether any guarantees can be secured to prevent further Russian aggression. Europe will inevitably bear a greater financial burden in supporting Ukraine, particularly if the United States reduces its aid.
The possibility of nuclear escalation remains a grave concern. Putin, described as a gambler, demonstrated a willingness to invade Ukraine in 2022, despite the inherent risks. While his rhetoric is often more restrained than that of some of his advisors, the threat of nuclear weapons remains real. As long as the US remains a member of Nato, the risk of a devastating nuclear response exists.
China’s Ambitions and Internal Pressures
Turning to China, President Xi Jinping has recently refrained from overt threats against Taiwan. However, a former CIA director revealed two years ago that Xi had ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027. Failure to take decisive action regarding Taiwan could be perceived as weakness by Xi.
China’s leadership is also acutely aware of domestic public opinion, a sensitivity stemming from the 1989 Tiananmen Square uprising. Simpson, who reported from Tiananmen Square, recalls that the suppression of the protests was not simply a crackdown on students, but a violent suppression of a broader popular uprising involving ordinary citizens. He vividly remembers the scenes of burned-out police stations and the brutal aftermath of the military intervention.
China’s leadership remains vigilant against any form of opposition, whether from organized groups or local protests. Simpson recounts a conversation with Bo Xilai, a former rival of Xi Jinping, who remarked, “You’ll never understand how insecure a government feels when it knows it hasn’t been elected.”
A Gloomy Outlook
In conclusion, 2026 appears to be a year of significant geopolitical risk. China’s power will continue to grow, and its strategy for Taiwan will become clearer. The war in Ukraine may be settled, but likely on terms favorable to Putin, potentially allowing him to pursue further territorial gains. And President Trump, even if weakened politically, may further distance the US from Europe.
From a European perspective, the outlook is bleak. The prospect of a traditional shooting war with nuclear weapons may be less likely, but a more insidious form of conflict – a collection of diplomatic and military maneuvers that favor autocracy – is increasingly probable. And, as Simpson warns, this process has already begun.
Top picture credits: AFP / Getty Images
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